Sat, Oct 21, 2017·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Pittsburgh Penguins 1, Tampa Bay Lightning 7
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 07 | 012 | 110 | 129 |
| TBL | 313 | 316 | 13 | 732 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:36TBLNikita KucherovPPAssists: Victor Hedman, Steven Stamkos · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 14:16TBLSteven StamkosPPGWGAssists: Vladislav Namestnikov, Nikita Kucherov · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–2
- P1 19:59TBLYanni GourdeAssists: Braydon Coburn, Brayden Point · Backhand, 0.27 xG0–3
- P2 0:30TBLBrayden PointAssists: Ondrej Palat, Yanni Gourde · Wrist, 0.27 xG0–4
- P2 5:58TBLAnton StralmanAssists: Mikhail Sergachev · Snap, 0.05 xG0–5
- P2 7:12TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Steven Stamkos, Alex Killorn · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–6
- P3 10:32TBLMikhail SergachevPPAssists: Steven Stamkos, Vladislav Namestnikov · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–7
- P3 18:18PITJake GuentzelPPAssists: Bryan Rust, Kris Letang · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–7
Penalties (12)
- P1 0:57PITSidney Crosby: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P1 1:36PITSidney Crosby: Misconduct10 min
- P1 4:11TBLOndrej Palat: Boarding2 min
- P1 13:23PITKris Letang: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 1:26PITGreg McKegg: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:44TBLBraydon Coburn: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:27PITPhil Kessel: Slashing2 min
- P3 9:07PITPatric Hornqvist: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 11:27TBLRyan Callahan: Slashing2 min
- P3 16:36TBLYanni Gourde: Closing hand on puck2 min · PPG
- P3 19:37TBLJake Dotchin: Cross checking2 min
- P3 19:37PITRyan Reaves: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Point
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – Rust – Sheary7:00
xG 0.30–0.02 (93%)attempts 14–4goals 0–0
- Kessel – Hagelin – Guentzel4:51
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Reaves – McKegg – Kuhnhackl5:53
xG 0.07–0.15 (34%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Malkin – Hornqvist – Kuhnhackl3:25
xG 0.22–0.49 (30%)attempts 3–5goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Ruhwedel11:33
xG 0.33–0.15 (69%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Schultz – Maatta15:54
xG 0.92–1.11 (45%)attempts 15–19goals 0–1
- Letang – Dumoulin14:43
xG 0.21–0.91 (19%)attempts 12–15goals 0–2
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestPalat – Gourde – Point12:26
xG 0.90–0.42 (68%)attempts 9–15goals 2–0
- Kunitz – Callahan – Dumont11:29
xG 0.55–0.13 (81%)attempts 13–4goals 0–0
- Killorn – Johnson – Point2:18
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- Stamkos – Kucherov – Namestnikov11:01
xG 0.22–0.44 (33%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHedman – Dotchin6:55
xG 1.05–0.10 (91%)attempts 13–2goals 2–0
- Girardi – Sergachev3:04
xG 0.23–0.04 (86%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Coburn – Girardi4:50
xG 0.34–0.16 (68%)attempts 4–7goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).