Sat, Oct 21, 2017·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Carolina Hurricanes 3, Dallas Stars 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 011 | 114 | 214 | 339 |
| DAL | 214 | 29 | 03 | 426 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:58DALJamie BennAssists: Alexander Radulov, Stephen Johns · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 18:07DALTyler PitlickAssists: Radek Faksa, Dan Hamhuis · Tip-in, 0.23 xG0–2
- P2 5:24DALTyler SeguinAssists: Mattias Janmark, Esa Lindell · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–3
- P2 7:46DALTyler PitlickGWGAssists: Antoine Roussel, Radek Faksa · Tip-in, 0.13 xG0–4
- P2 19:50CARJeff SkinnerAssists: Brock McGinn · Snap, 0.26 xG1–4
- P3 5:32CARJeff SkinnerAssists: Noah Hanifin, Brock McGinn · Wrist, 0.42 xG2–4
- P3 15:24CARJordan StaalAssists: Sebastian Aho, Elias Lindholm · Tip-in, 0.12 xG3–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 3:55CARBrett Pesce: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:18DALTyler Seguin: Slashing2 min
- P2 10:49CARJeff Skinner: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:21DALRemi Elie: Delaying game2 min
- P3 17:11DALMartin Hanzal: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Seguin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestWilliams – Staal – Teravainen12:28
xG 0.44–0.10 (81%)attempts 14–4goals 0–0
- Skinner – McGinn – Ryan10:08
xG 0.92–0.73 (56%)attempts 10–11goals 2–2
- Rask – Lindholm – Aho12:08
xG 0.48–0.34 (58%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Kruger – Nordstrom – Jooris7:16
xG 0.22–0.29 (43%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFaulk – Hanifin10:56
xG 0.97–0.42 (70%)attempts 10–11goals 1–1
- Faulk – Fleury3:25
xG 0.16–0.17 (49%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Slavin – Pesce16:47
xG 0.61–0.74 (45%)attempts 18–11goals 0–1
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestRoussel – Pitlick – Faksa9:13
xG 0.64–0.17 (79%)attempts 9–7goals 2–0
- Spezza – Shore – Janmark2:09
xG 0.01–0.05 (14%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Ritchie – Shore – Janmark7:23
xG 0.11–0.25 (32%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Spezza – Hanzal – Elie8:08
xG 0.22–0.50 (31%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHamhuis – Johns14:23
xG 0.96–0.47 (67%)attempts 15–12goals 2–1
- Lindell – Honka11:43
xG 0.34–0.12 (74%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Johns – Lindell2:01
xG 0.10–0.12 (45%)attempts 1–4goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).