Tue, Oct 24, 2017·Barclays Center, Brooklyn
Arizona Coyotes 3, New York Islanders 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 114 | 09 | 212 | 335 |
| NYI | 06 | 211 | 38 | 525 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:47ARIAnthony DuclairPPAssists: Clayton Keller, Derek Stepan · Snap, 0.36 xG1–0
- P2 3:41NYIJohn TavaresAssists: Jordan Eberle · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 14:25NYIJohn TavaresAssists: Adam Pelech, Jordan Eberle · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–2
- P3 1:32ARIMario KempeAssists: Tobias Rieder, Christian Dvorak · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–2
- P3 4:21NYIBrock NelsonPPAssists: Adam Pelech, Josh Bailey · Snap, 0.07 xG2–3
- P3 8:57ARINick CousinsAssists: Clayton Keller, Adam Clendening · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–3
- P3 12:41NYIJohn TavaresGWGAssists: Adam Pelech, Calvin de Haan · Tip-in, 0.04 xG3–4
- P3 17:03NYIScott MayfieldAssists: John Tavares, Anders Lee · Slap, 0.02 xG3–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 4:19NYIAnders Lee: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 9:18NYIAdam Pelech: Holding2 min
- P1 10:43NYIScott Mayfield: Interference2 min
- P2 5:34ARINick Cousins: Holding2 min
- P3 3:19ARINiklas Hjalmarsson: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 17:52ARINick Cousins: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nelson won the faceoff against Dvorak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestKempe – Rieder – Dvorak13:48
xG 0.49–0.29 (63%)attempts 14–12goals 1–1
- Richardson – Martinook – Duclair6:32
xG 0.17–0.04 (82%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Stepan – Domi – Keller12:38
xG 0.63–0.58 (52%)attempts 14–6goals 0–1
- Rinaldo – Cousins – Fischer5:33
xG 0.16–0.21 (43%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDemers – Ekman-Larsson19:07
xG 0.89–0.79 (53%)attempts 24–11goals 1–2
- Goligoski – Schenn10:46
xG 0.33–0.29 (53%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Goligoski – Hjalmarsson5:20
xG 0.08–0.12 (41%)attempts 6–3goals 0–1
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestBailey – Barzal – Beauvillier10:50
xG 0.51–0.28 (65%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Kulemin – Cizikas11:08
xG 0.50–0.52 (49%)attempts 8–11goals 0–1
- Chimera – Ladd – Nelson10:28
xG 0.00–0.21 (0%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Eberle – Tavares – Lee12:01
xG 0.31–0.53 (37%)attempts 10–12goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestde Haan – Pelech14:21
xG 1.16–0.53 (69%)attempts 17–15goals 3–1
- Mayfield – Pelech2:09
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Boychuk – Leddy16:54
xG 0.22–0.37 (37%)attempts 12–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).