Tue, Oct 24, 2017·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Edmonton Oilers 1, Pittsburgh Penguins 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 08 | 013 | 18 | 01 | 130 |
| PIT | 015 | 011 | 115 | 13 | 244 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 3:24PITIan ColeAssists: Ryan Reaves, Riley Sheahan · Snap, 0.06 xG0–1
- P3 17:07EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Patrick Maroon, Oscar Klefbom · Snap, 0.05 xG1–1
- OT 0:42PITPhil KesselGWGAssists: Evgeni Malkin · Snap, 0.15 xG1–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 5:19PITRyan Reaves: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:19EDMDarnell Nurse: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:39EDMYohann Auvitu: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:58PITPatric Hornqvist: Elbowing2 min
- P2 12:29EDMMatt Benning: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:22PITIan Cole: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:11EDMAdam Larsson: Elbowing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against McDavid
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestLetestu – Caggiula – Yamamoto3:16
xG 0.18–0.07 (73%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Lucic – Nugent-Hopkins – Strome12:48
xG 0.40–0.34 (54%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Letestu – Maroon – McDavid5:32
xG 0.23–0.18 (57%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Maroon – McDavid – Yamamoto3:47
xG 0.25–0.24 (52%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRussell – Nurse10:24
xG 0.52–0.30 (63%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Larsson – Nurse2:39
xG 0.21–0.04 (85%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Larsson – Klefbom14:10
xG 0.34–0.35 (49%)attempts 14–10goals 1–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – Guentzel – Sheary15:54
xG 0.89–0.63 (58%)attempts 18–20goals 0–0
- Reaves – McKegg – Kuhnhackl4:41
xG 0.14–0.02 (90%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Hornqvist – Hagelin – Sheahan9:12
xG 0.11–0.23 (32%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Malkin – Kessel – Rust12:13
xG 0.27–0.69 (28%)attempts 12–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Ruhwedel8:29
xG 0.41–0.31 (57%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Maatta – Ruhwedel8:02
xG 0.17–0.13 (56%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
- Letang – Dumoulin13:54
xG 0.54–0.55 (50%)attempts 15–18goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).