Wed, Oct 25, 2017·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Calgary Flames 2, St. Louis Blues 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 112 | 17 | 06 | 225 |
| STL | 18 | 210 | 211 | 529 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:58CGYMikael BacklundAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Travis Hamonic · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 17:27STLAlexander SteenAssists: Vladimir Sobotka, Paul Stastny · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 4:07STLJaden SchwartzPPAssists: Vladimir Tarasenko, Alexander Steen · Backhand, 0.21 xG1–2
- P2 6:53STLAlex PietrangeloPPGWGAssists: Brayden Schenn, Alexander Steen · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–3
- P2 13:15CGYMikael BacklundAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Michael Frolik · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–3
- P3 16:28STLPaul StastnyAssists: Alexander Steen, Colton Parayko · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–4
- P3 19:16STLJoel EdmundsonENAssists: Brayden Schenn, Vladimir Tarasenko · Slap, 0.71 xG2–5
Penalties (5)
- P1 12:34CGYBrett Kulak: High sticking2 min
- P2 3:04CGYSam Bennett: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 4:22STLPaul Stastny: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:15CGYMichael Frolik: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 19:46STLMagnus Paajarvi: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Monahan won the faceoff against Schenn
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestStajan – Versteeg – Brouwer6:10
xG 0.22–0.07 (76%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Frolik – Backlund – Tkachuk11:37
xG 0.73–0.65 (53%)attempts 10–15goals 2–2
- Versteeg – Jankowski – Bennett4:44
xG 0.09–0.05 (63%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Stajan – Brouwer – Gaudreau2:43
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamonic – Brodie18:17
xG 0.68–0.41 (62%)attempts 17–15goals 1–1
- Stone – Kulak7:57
xG 0.30–0.11 (74%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Stone – Brodie2:55
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSteen – Stastny – Sobotka10:55
xG 0.64–0.34 (66%)attempts 13–6goals 2–0
- Schenn – Tarasenko – Schwartz13:43
xG 0.43–0.22 (66%)attempts 12–11goals 0–1
- Thorburn – Upshall – Brodziak8:06
xG 0.07–0.31 (18%)attempts 5–6goals 0–1
- Paajarvi – Bennett – Sundqvist9:04
xG 0.18–0.52 (26%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestProsser – Dunn4:02
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Bortuzzo – Parayko3:52
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 1–0
- Prosser – Parayko9:51
xG 0.41–0.40 (51%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).