Fri, Oct 27, 2017·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Colorado Avalanche 0, Vegas Golden Knights 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 08 | 013 | 011 | 032 |
| VGK | 06 | 47 | 38 | 721 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 8:50VGKDavid PerronGWGUnassisted · Backhand, 0.14 xG0–1
- P2 12:19VGKOscar LindbergUnassisted · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–2
- P2 15:33VGKCody EakinAssists: James Neal, David Perron · Wrist, 0.27 xG0–3
- P2 18:16VGKJames NealAssists: Colin Miller, Cody Eakin · Deflected, 0.01 xG0–4
- P3 5:26VGKJonathan MarchessaultAssists: Luca Sbisa, Nate Schmidt · Wrist, 0.26 xG0–5
- P3 7:29VGKErik HaulaPPAssists: Jonathan Marchessault, Nate Schmidt · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–6
- P3 13:31VGKWilliam CarrierAssists: Brad Hunt · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–7
Penalties (12)
- P1 10:59COLPatrik Nemeth: High sticking double minor4 min
- P1 15:32VGKJonathan Marchessault: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:27VGKJames Neal: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:17VGKBrayden McNabb: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:19COLA.J. Greer: Delaying game bench2 min
- P3 7:16COLA.J. Greer: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 7:16COLA.J. Greer: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:16COLA.J. Greer: Misconduct10 min
- P3 7:16VGKPierre-Edouard Bellemare: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:06COLNathan MacKinnon: Fighting5 min
- P3 10:06VGKBrayden McNabb: Fighting5 min
- P3 17:27COLNail Yakupov: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eakin won the faceoff against Duchene
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestKerfoot – MacKinnon – Greer2:00
xG 0.32–0.09 (79%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Duchene – Landeskog – Yakupov7:46
xG 0.13–0.17 (44%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Comeau – Soderberg – Nieto9:46
xG 0.10–0.27 (28%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Andrighetto – MacKinnon – Rantanen8:12
xG 0.41–0.81 (34%)attempts 12–8goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestBarrie – Nemeth10:26
xG 0.39–0.26 (59%)attempts 12–8goals 0–1
- Johnson – Lindholm9:20
xG 0.15–0.18 (47%)attempts 8–7goals 0–2
- Nemeth – Lindholm3:09
xG 0.06–0.11 (34%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Karlsson – Marchessault8:39
xG 1.00–0.40 (72%)attempts 15–9goals 1–0
- Neal – Perron – Eakin11:38
xG 0.60–0.12 (84%)attempts 11–10goals 3–0
- Carrier – Bellemare – Nosek7:35
xG 0.22–0.42 (34%)attempts 4–8goals 1–0
- Haula – Lindberg – Tuch9:30
xG 0.13–0.39 (25%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSbisa – Schmidt12:49
xG 0.85–0.38 (69%)attempts 10–13goals 1–0
- Engelland – McNabb13:34
xG 0.85–0.63 (57%)attempts 21–13goals 2–0
- Engelland – Hunt2:24
xG 0.15–0.08 (66%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).