Sat, Oct 28, 2017·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
San Jose Sharks 3, Buffalo Sabres 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 18 | 116 | 17 | 331 |
| BUF | 011 | 211 | 011 | 233 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:12SJSJoonas DonskoiUnassisted · Snap, 0.18 xG1–0
- P2 2:55BUFRyan O'ReillyPPAssists: Kyle Okposo, Sam Reinhart · Slap, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 14:51BUFJason PominvilleAssists: Jack Eichel, Evander Kane · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
- P2 19:48SJSChris TierneyAssists: Melker Karlsson, Timo Meier · Slap, 0.38 xG2–2
- P3 16:08SJSLogan CoutureGWGAssists: Tomas Hertl, Justin Braun · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 2:03BUFSam Reinhart: Tripping2 min
- P1 7:03SJSJoonas Donskoi: Slashing2 min
- P1 12:37SJSTimo Meier: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:54SJSJoonas Donskoi: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:30SJSJoel Ward: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 9:42BUFVictor Antipin: Interference2 min
- P2 17:45BUFEvander Kane: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:21SJSLogan Couture: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Couture
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestBoedker – Donskoi – Tierney8:32
xG 0.79–0.00 (100%)attempts 12–2goals 0–0
- Thornton – Pavelski – Labanc11:14
xG 0.34–0.17 (67%)attempts 12–5goals 0–1
- Couture – Hertl – Karlsson7:45
xG 0.03–0.30 (10%)attempts 3–7goals 1–0
- Ward – Carpenter – Meier4:45
xG 0.13–0.45 (22%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Ryan14:48
xG 0.95–0.50 (65%)attempts 18–9goals 0–0
- Dillon – Heed8:09
xG 0.08–0.10 (44%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Vlasic – Braun13:42
xG 0.22–0.32 (40%)attempts 6–13goals 1–1
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestPominville – Kane – Eichel12:01
xG 0.51–0.30 (63%)attempts 13–12goals 1–0
- Pouliot – Okposo – O'Reilly10:40
xG 0.21–0.14 (60%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
- Nolan – Larsson – Griffith5:09
xG 0.23–0.17 (58%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Girgensons – Bailey – Reinhart2:41
xG 0.05–0.02 (72%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTennyson – McCabe11:06
xG 0.51–0.35 (59%)attempts 8–10goals 0–1
- McCabe – Ristolainen2:11
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Redmond – McCabe2:27
xG 0.21–0.11 (66%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).