Sat, Oct 28, 2017·Centre Bell, Montreal
New York Rangers 4, Montréal Canadiens 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 90% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 02 | 214 | 210 | 426 |
| MTL | 319 | 114 | 110 | 543 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:51MTLPaul ByronAssists: Jonathan Drouin · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–1
- P1 11:09MTLAlex GalchenyukPPAssists: Brendan Gallagher, Phillip Danault · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–2
- P1 13:15MTLPhillip DanaultAssists: Andrew Shaw, Shea Weber · Wrist, 0.29 xG0–3
- P2 2:21NYRPavel BuchnevichPPAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk, J.T. Miller · Slap, 0.02 xG1–3
- P2 12:20NYRRick NashAssists: J.T. Miller, Mika Zibanejad · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–3
- P2 14:38MTLMax PaciorettyAssists: Shea Weber, Phillip Danault · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–4
- P3 2:25NYRMika ZibanejadAssists: Ryan McDonagh, Rick Nash · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–4
- P3 7:00NYRBrady SkjeiAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk, David Desharnais · Slap, 0.33 xG4–4
- P3 9:37MTLPhillip DanaultGWGAssists: Brandon Davidson, Andrew Shaw · Wrist, 0.23 xG4–5
Penalties (11)
- P1 9:52NYRMats Zuccarello: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 14:18NYRKevin Shattenkirk: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 2:15MTLArtturi Lehkonen: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 5:45NYRChris Kreider: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:52MTLBrendan Gallagher: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:52NYRChris Kreider: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:27MTLKarl Alzner: Holding2 min
- P3 3:32MTLPaul Byron: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:07NYRMats Zuccarello: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:12NYRKevin Shattenkirk: Hooking2 min
- P3 15:13MTLAndrew Shaw: Holding the stick2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Desharnais won the faceoff against Plekanec
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- Desharnais – Kreider – Zuccarello10:49
xG 0.38–0.49 (44%)attempts 6–11goals 1–0
- Grabner – Nieves – Buchnevich7:55
xG 0.18–0.40 (31%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
- Nash – Zibanejad – Miller8:36
xG 0.37–0.76 (33%)attempts 11–9goals 2–2
- Hayes – Fast – Vesey3:58
xG 0.00–0.90 (0%)attempts 0–9goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestShattenkirk – Skjei6:43
xG 0.36–0.02 (94%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Staal – Holden3:36
xG 0.26–0.42 (39%)attempts 5–7goals 1–1
- Holden – Skjei7:48
xG 0.11–0.36 (23%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestPacioretty – Shaw – Danault9:46
xG 1.54–0.19 (89%)attempts 21–8goals 3–0
- Byron – Lehkonen – Drouin6:51
xG 0.50–0.16 (76%)attempts 7–3goals 1–1
- Plekanec – Gallagher – Hudon5:33
xG 0.43–0.17 (71%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
- Mitchell – Galchenyuk – McCarron3:46
xG 0.10–0.14 (41%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Mete7:27
xG 1.26–0.44 (74%)attempts 12–8goals 2–1
- Alzner – Benn11:38
xG 0.54–0.11 (84%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Petry – Davidson10:48
xG 0.78–0.76 (51%)attempts 14–12goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 90% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).