Mon, Oct 30, 2017·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Arizona Coyotes 4, Philadelphia Flyers 3 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 213 | 09 | 17 | 15 | 434 |
| PHI | 03 | 010 | 317 | 01 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:20ARIJordan MartinookAssists: Niklas Hjalmarsson, Brad Richardson · Snap, 0.23 xG1–0
- P1 7:46ARIChristian DvorakAssists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Jason Demers · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–0
- P3 1:34ARIBrendan PerliniPPAssists: Alex Goligoski, Niklas Hjalmarsson · Snap, 0.05 xG3–0
- P3 2:14PHISean CouturierPPAssists: Claude Giroux, Ivan Provorov · Snap, 0.08 xG3–1
- P3 19:07PHIJordan WealAssists: Ivan Provorov, Valtteri Filppula · Snap, 0.35 xG3–2
- P3 19:45PHISean CouturierAssists: Claude Giroux, Ivan Provorov · Tip-in, 0.09 xG3–3
- OT 4:45ARIAlex GoligoskiGWGAssists: Clayton Keller, Max Domi · Snap, 0.20 xG4–3
Penalties (7)
- P2 12:18ARIChristian Dvorak: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:18PHISean Couturier: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:55PHIWayne Simmonds: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 1:46ARIBrad Richardson: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 10:15PHIJakub Voracek: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 10:15ARILuke Schenn: Roughing2 min
- OT 0:32PHIJakub Voracek: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Cousins
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestStepan – Domi – Keller12:40
xG 1.23–0.33 (79%)attempts 17–11goals 0–0
- Richardson – Martinook – Fischer11:47
xG 0.50–0.23 (69%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Rieder – Perlini – Dvorak11:26
xG 0.26–0.22 (54%)attempts 8–12goals 1–0
- Kempe – Rinaldo – Cousins6:41
xG 0.08–0.31 (21%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDemers – Ekman-Larsson17:36
xG 1.26–0.19 (87%)attempts 17–10goals 1–0
- Goligoski – Hjalmarsson18:30
xG 0.68–0.39 (63%)attempts 16–16goals 1–0
- Schenn – Connauton11:41
xG 0.08–0.68 (11%)attempts 4–14goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestLehtera – Read – Konecny6:50
xG 0.28–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Filppula – Simmonds – Konecny4:26
xG 0.06–0.05 (57%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Filppula – Simmonds – Weal7:11
xG 0.28–0.31 (47%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
- Giroux – Voracek – Couturier15:25
xG 0.46–0.75 (38%)attempts 18–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSanheim – Provorov4:03
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Gudas – Sanheim14:16
xG 0.44–0.42 (51%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
- Alt – Provorov2:15
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).