Wed, Nov 1, 2017·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Pittsburgh Penguins 3, Edmonton Oilers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 010 | 214 | 16 | 330 |
| EDM | 012 | 214 | 011 | 237 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:56PITPatric HornqvistPPAssists: Kris Letang, Phil Kessel · Tip-in, 0.17 xG1–0
- P2 6:36EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsPPAssists: Patrick Maroon, Connor McDavid · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–1
- P2 7:26EDMLeon DraisaitlAssists: Connor McDavid · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–2
- P2 19:38PITConor ShearyAssists: Sidney Crosby, Olli Maatta · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–2
- P3 12:23PITEvgeni MalkinPPGWGAssists: Phil Kessel, Kris Letang · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 9:48PITSidney Crosby: Holding2 min
- P1 19:18EDMRyan Nugent-Hopkins: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 2:44PITJake Guentzel: Holding2 min
- P2 2:44PITJake Guentzel: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:02EDMZack Kassian: Interference2 min
- P2 12:20EDMDarnell Nurse: Slashing2 min
- P3 1:56PITOlli Maatta: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:41PITJake Guentzel: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:04EDMRyan Nugent-Hopkins: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McDavid won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – Hornqvist – Sheary12:06
xG 1.04–0.55 (65%)attempts 16–12goals 1–1
- Kessel – Sheahan – Guentzel8:03
xG 0.04–0.11 (25%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Malkin – Rust – Kuhnhackl7:12
xG 0.13–0.22 (38%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Reaves – McKegg – Archibald5:35
xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Maatta11:47
xG 0.82–0.32 (72%)attempts 13–12goals 1–1
- Letang – Dumoulin2:26
xG 0.02–0.10 (18%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Dumoulin – Ruhwedel14:24
xG 0.67–0.76 (47%)attempts 17–16goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestStrome – Slepyshev – Caggiula11:14
xG 0.34–0.16 (68%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Letestu – Kassian – Pakarinen4:14
xG 0.07–0.12 (37%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Lucic – Nugent-Hopkins – Yamamoto10:23
xG 0.17–0.24 (41%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Maroon – Draisaitl – McDavid12:29
xG 0.62–1.08 (36%)attempts 14–17goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestRussell – Auvitu10:01
xG 0.32–0.02 (93%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Klefbom – Benning13:15
xG 0.18–0.40 (31%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
- Larsson – Nurse14:20
xG 0.85–1.10 (44%)attempts 15–20goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).