Sat, Nov 4, 2017·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Buffalo Sabres 1, Dallas Stars 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 08 | 111 | 09 | 128 |
| DAL | 49 | 14 | 09 | 522 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:09DALRemi ElieAssists: Antoine Roussel · Wrist, 0.33 xG0–1
- P1 7:07DALRadek FaksaGWGAssists: Gemel Smith, John Klingberg · Tip-in, 0.24 xG0–2
- P1 10:27DALStephen JohnsAssists: Gemel Smith, Radek Faksa · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–3
- P1 12:51DALTyler SeguinPPAssists: John Klingberg, Alexander Radulov · Slap, 0.15 xG0–4
- P2 11:51BUFRyan O'ReillyUnassisted · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–4
- P2 18:50DALAntoine RousselAssists: John Klingberg, Tyler Seguin · Tip-in, 0.06 xG1–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 12:12BUFMatt Tennyson: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 1:41DALMarc Methot: Holding2 min
- P2 12:16DALAntoine Roussel: Holding2 min
- P2 13:19BUFKyle Okposo: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:19DALRadek Faksa: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:50DALTyler Seguin: Boarding2 min
- P3 1:58DALAntoine Roussel: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Faksa
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestPominville – Kane – Eichel12:23
xG 0.57–0.16 (79%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Larsson – Griffith – Girgensons2:16
xG 0.06–0.02 (72%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Griffith – Girgensons – Reinhart10:22
xG 0.27–0.33 (45%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
- Moulson – Nolan – Larsson7:36
xG 0.08–0.30 (22%)attempts 2–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestFalk – Scandella14:31
xG 0.72–0.30 (71%)attempts 13–14goals 1–0
- Fedun – Antipin13:43
xG 0.40–0.31 (57%)attempts 15–12goals 0–1
- Scandella – Tennyson2:20
xG 0.09–0.09 (51%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestPitlick – Faksa – Smith6:33
xG 0.40–0.06 (87%)attempts 8–4goals 2–0
- Spezza – Roussel – Elie8:52
xG 0.63–0.43 (59%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Shore – Janmark – Dickinson10:05
xG 0.25–0.19 (57%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Radulov – Benn – Seguin13:32
xG 0.27–0.43 (39%)attempts 12–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHamhuis – Pateryn14:31
xG 0.41–0.20 (67%)attempts 17–10goals 0–0
- Methot – Klingberg16:16
xG 0.86–0.72 (54%)attempts 15–21goals 2–1
- Johns – Lindell17:10
xG 0.48–0.47 (51%)attempts 13–8goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).