Wed, Nov 8, 2017·Madison Square Garden, New York
Boston Bruins 2, New York Rangers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 17 | 013 | 113 | 233 |
| NYR | 316 | 08 | 19 | 433 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:53NYRPavel BuchnevichAssists: Ryan McDonagh, Michael Grabner · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–1
- P1 10:14BOSDavid PastrnakAssists: Patrice Bergeron, Anders Bjork · Wrist, 0.33 xG1–1
- P1 14:41NYRJimmy VeseyAssists: Pavel Buchnevich, Mika Zibanejad · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–2
- P1 15:10NYRJimmy VeseyGWGAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk, David Desharnais · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–3
- P3 6:44BOSPatrice BergeronAssists: David Pastrnak, Torey Krug · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–3
- P3 19:52NYRRick NashENAssists: Ryan McDonagh · Snap, 0.64 xG2–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 19:20NYRPavel Buchnevich: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:46NYRChris Kreider: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 2:37NYRNick Holden: Slashing2 min
- P3 12:24NYRDavid Desharnais: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:02BOSDavid Pastrnak: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Hayes
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Pastrnak – Bjork11:01
xG 1.07–0.65 (62%)attempts 19–9goals 2–0
- Kuraly – Schaller – Heinen6:52
xG 0.18–0.23 (43%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
- Beleskey – Nash – Czarnik5:34
xG 0.09–0.37 (20%)attempts 3–11goals 0–1
- Nash – Kuraly – Schaller3:04
xG 0.01–0.33 (4%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKrug – Carlo11:54
xG 0.97–0.68 (59%)attempts 15–11goals 2–1
- Krug – McAvoy2:22
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–0goals 0–0
- O'Gara – Carlo2:58
xG 0.16–0.06 (71%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestNash – Zuccarello – Hayes12:16
xG 0.90–0.51 (64%)attempts 13–17goals 0–0
- Grabner – Carey – Fast7:15
xG 0.31–0.12 (72%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Kreider – Zibanejad – Buchnevich9:49
xG 0.58–0.61 (49%)attempts 13–8goals 0–1
- Desharnais – Miller – Vesey11:51
xG 0.31–0.37 (46%)attempts 8–15goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestShattenkirk – Skjei15:13
xG 0.96–0.54 (64%)attempts 17–19goals 1–0
- Staal – Kampfer12:44
xG 0.71–0.41 (63%)attempts 15–9goals 0–0
- McDonagh – Holden14:11
xG 1.01–0.92 (52%)attempts 14–10goals 2–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).