Thu, Nov 9, 2017·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Detroit Red Wings 3, Calgary Flames 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 010 | 321 | 011 | 342 |
| CGY | 215 | 310 | 19 | 634 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:15CGYMark JankowskiAssists: Jaromir Jagr, Sam Bennett · Deflected, 0.30 xG0–1
- P1 13:56CGYJohnny GaudreauAssists: Sean Monahan · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–2
- P2 6:02CGYMicheal FerlandAssists: Mikael Backlund · Wrist, 0.21 xG0–3
- P2 8:43DETMartin FrkPPAssists: Anthony Mantha, Dylan Larkin · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–3
- P2 12:23CGYMatthew TkachukGWGAssists: Brett Kulak, Mikael Backlund · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–4
- P2 15:49DETFrans NielsenAssists: Anthony Mantha, Mike Green · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–4
- P2 17:01CGYJaromir JagrAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Brett Kulak · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–5
- P2 19:56DETAnthony ManthaAssists: Jonathan Ericsson, Frans Nielsen · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–5
- P3 17:37CGYJohnny GaudreauENAssists: Sean Monahan · Wrist, 0.60 xG3–6
Penalties (7)
- P1 5:18DETAnthony Mantha: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:04CGYSam Bennett: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 13:09CGYMark Giordano: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:57CGYTroy Brouwer: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:57DETJustin Abdelkader: Fighting5 min
- P3 2:01CGYDougie Hamilton: Slashing2 min
- P3 7:17DETMartin Frk: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nielsen won the faceoff against Jankowski
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- Nielsen – Helm – Glendening8:03
xG 0.17–0.14 (54%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Zetterberg – Nyquist – Mantha10:31
xG 0.79–0.77 (51%)attempts 9–16goals 0–1
- Frk – Athanasiou – Mantha2:26
xG 0.08–0.15 (34%)attempts 1–3goals 0–1
- Wilson – Frk – Athanasiou3:28
xG 0.03–0.20 (12%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDaley – Jensen2:08
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Green – Ouellet11:05
xG 0.55–0.45 (55%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
- Daley – Ericsson14:39
xG 0.72–0.84 (46%)attempts 15–12goals 0–2
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestFerland – Gaudreau – Monahan13:46
xG 1.26–0.40 (76%)attempts 15–16goals 1–0
- Frolik – Backlund – Tkachuk11:29
xG 0.67–0.20 (77%)attempts 13–10goals 1–0
- Versteeg – Brouwer – Lazar6:22
xG 0.20–0.20 (50%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Jagr – Jankowski – Bennett8:09
xG 0.48–0.76 (39%)attempts 8–15goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestStone – Brodie16:56
xG 1.43–0.78 (65%)attempts 17–25goals 2–0
- Kulak – Andersson13:45
xG 1.30–0.77 (63%)attempts 17–14goals 2–0
- Giordano – Hamilton17:41
xG 0.86–0.66 (57%)attempts 21–19goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).