Fri, Nov 10, 2017·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Florida Panthers 4, Buffalo Sabres 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 92% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 08 | 115 | 38 | 431 |
| BUF | 16 | 09 | 010 | 125 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:02BUFKyle OkposoPPAssists: Victor Antipin, Evander Kane · Tip-in, 0.17 xG0–1
- P2 6:52FLAEvgenii DadonovAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Jonathan Huberdeau · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–1
- P3 3:50FLAIan McCoshenGWGAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Evgenii Dadonov · Snap, 0.01 xG2–1
- P3 18:28FLAAleksander BarkovENAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Colton Sceviour · Wrist, 0.69 xG3–1
- P3 18:45FLAVincent TrocheckENAssists: Aaron Ekblad · Wrist, 0.69 xG4–1
Penalties (12)
- P1 4:55BUFTaylor Fedun: Hooking2 min
- P1 12:00FLAColton Sceviour: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 18:33FLAKeith Yandle: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:51BUFJake McCabe: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:39BUFMarco Scandella: Slashing2 min
- P3 9:09BUFJordan Nolan: Fighting5 min
- P3 9:09FLAMicheal Haley: Fighting5 min
- P3 9:09FLAMicheal Haley: High sticking2 min
- P3 9:09BUFJordan Nolan: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00BUFNathan Beaulieu: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00FLAMicheal Haley: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00FLAMike Matheson: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Trocheck
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestDadonov – Huberdeau – Barkov13:06
xG 0.92–0.06 (94%)attempts 22–3goals 2–0
- McGinn – Sceviour – Bjugstad7:36
xG 0.25–0.10 (72%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- MacKenzie – Haley – Brickley5:19
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Vrbata – Trocheck – Hunt7:06
xG 0.13–0.24 (36%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestYandle – Ekblad16:19
xG 1.05–0.33 (76%)attempts 24–12goals 1–0
- Pysyk – Matheson17:20
xG 0.28–0.17 (62%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
- Yandle – Matheson2:35
xG 0.06–0.03 (68%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestGriffith – Baptiste – Reinhart8:17
xG 0.17–0.11 (60%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Nolan – Larsson – Girgensons6:03
xG 0.01–0.08 (11%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Pouliot – Okposo – O'Reilly11:14
xG 0.22–0.33 (39%)attempts 13–10goals 0–1
- Pominville – Kane – Eichel12:19
xG 0.33–0.67 (33%)attempts 9–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Fedun – McCabe14:03
xG 0.27–0.22 (54%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Scandella – Beaulieu2:08
xG 0.03–0.04 (40%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Beaulieu – Antipin13:43
xG 0.21–0.47 (31%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 92% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).