Sat, Nov 11, 2017·Madison Square Garden, New York
Edmonton Oilers 2, New York Rangers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 112 | 110 | 07 | 229 |
| NYR | 19 | 213 | 112 | 434 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:19NYRRick NashAssists: Kevin Hayes, Mats Zuccarello · Snap, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 16:26EDMJesse PuljujarviAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Darnell Nurse · Snap, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 10:06EDMConnor McDavidPPAssists: Milan Lucic, Oscar Klefbom · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–1
- P2 15:10NYRPavel BuchnevichPPAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk, Mats Zuccarello · Snap, 0.18 xG2–2
- P2 18:53NYRRick NashPPGWGAssists: Brady Skjei, Ryan McDonagh · Tip-in, 0.16 xG2–3
- P3 19:58NYRMichael GrabnerENAssists: Jesper Fast · Wrist, 0.63 xG2–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 3:43NYRMika Zibanejad: Interference2 min
- P1 16:52EDMRyan Strome: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:13NYRSteven Kampfer: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 13:48EDMBrad Malone: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 17:19EDMPatrick Maroon: Elbowing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hayes won the faceoff against McDavid
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestLucic – Nugent-Hopkins – Puljujarvi13:49
xG 0.73–0.40 (65%)attempts 16–8goals 1–0
- Jokinen – Pakarinen – Strome8:56
xG 0.15–0.10 (59%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
- Letestu – Malone – Kassian4:23
xG 0.08–0.04 (64%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Maroon – Draisaitl – McDavid18:15
xG 0.45–1.19 (27%)attempts 17–18goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestRussell – Gryba11:23
xG 0.62–0.24 (72%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
- Larsson – Nurse17:33
xG 0.56–0.52 (52%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
- Larsson – Klefbom2:15
xG 0.02–0.17 (12%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestNash – Zuccarello – Hayes12:32
xG 0.69–0.15 (82%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
- Desharnais – Grabner – Miller2:10
xG 0.03–0.06 (33%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Desharnais – Miller – Vesey8:44
xG 0.08–0.11 (41%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Grabner – Hayes – Fast2:01
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcDonagh – Holden14:41
xG 1.01–0.11 (90%)attempts 17–6goals 1–0
- Staal – Kampfer15:24
xG 0.59–0.76 (43%)attempts 12–17goals 0–0
- Shattenkirk – Skjei14:46
xG 0.25–0.45 (36%)attempts 8–11goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).