Sat, Nov 11, 2017·Ericsson Globe, StockholmNeutral site
Colorado Avalanche 3, Ottawa Senators 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 88% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 17 | 25 | 06 | 318 |
| OTT | 016 | 210 | 214 | 440 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:13COLBlake ComeauSHAssists: Mark Barberio, Erik Johnson · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
- P2 0:12OTTMike HoffmanPPAssists: Derick Brassard, Erik Karlsson · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–1
- P2 8:34COLAlexander KerfootPPAssists: Erik Johnson, Sven Andrighetto · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–1
- P2 9:16OTTMark StoneAssists: Erik Karlsson · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–2
- P2 10:36COLSven AndrighettoAssists: Alexander Kerfoot, Andrei Mironov · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–2
- P3 7:01OTTJohnny OduyaAssists: Nate Thompson, Jean-Gabriel Pageau · Slap, 0.02 xG3–3
- P3 13:23OTTMike HoffmanPPGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–4
Penalties (12)
- P1 4:45OTTDerick Brassard: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:52COLAndrei Mironov: Interference2 min
- P1 18:51COLChris Bigras: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 6:54OTTTom Pyatt: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 16:44COLMark Barberio: Slashing2 min
- P3 4:00COLMark Barberio: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:53COLAlexander Kerfoot: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:13COLMark Barberio: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 15:04OTTJean-Gabriel Pageau: High sticking2 min
- P3 19:54OTTDion Phaneuf: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:54COLGabriel Landeskog: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:54OTTAlexandre Burrows: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pageau won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- Landeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen12:20
xG 0.35–0.30 (54%)attempts 13–15goals 0–0
- Yakupov – Kerfoot – Andrighetto10:16
xG 0.03–0.07 (34%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
- Wilson – Bourque – Grimaldi6:31
xG 0.04–0.11 (25%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Comeau – Nieto – Compher8:14
xG 0.00–0.54 (0%)attempts 3–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Johnson – Bigras3:57
xG 0.01–0.02 (36%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Bigras – Mironov6:11
xG 0.04–0.06 (43%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Barrie – Girard17:16
xG 0.20–0.29 (41%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestPyatt – DiDomenico – Pageau6:55
xG 0.23–0.06 (78%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Brassard – Stone – Dzingel6:34
xG 0.20–0.09 (69%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Brassard – Hoffman – Stone5:11
xG 0.16–0.07 (69%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- Thompson – Pyatt – Pageau3:52
xG 0.07–0.02 (75%)attempts 2–4goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Claesson11:13
xG 0.51–0.06 (89%)attempts 14–6goals 1–0
- Oduya – Phaneuf8:49
xG 0.07–0.05 (58%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
- Ceci – Harpur12:34
xG 0.26–0.32 (45%)attempts 12–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 88% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).