Sat, Nov 11, 2017·Prudential Center, Newark
Florida Panthers 1, New Jersey Devils 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 90% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 07 | 19 | 017 | 133 |
| NJD | 15 | 112 | 04 | 221 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:59NJDDamon SeversonAssists: Jimmy Hayes · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–1
- P2 4:58NJDKyle PalmieriPPGWGAssists: Will Butcher, Nico Hischier · Slap, 0.09 xG0–2
- P2 7:20FLANick BjugstadAssists: Mike Matheson · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 14:07NJDMiles Wood: Roughing2 min
- P1 16:26NJDTaylor Hall: Holding2 min
- P1 16:40FLAEvgenii Dadonov: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:19NJDJesper Bratt: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:23FLAConnor Brickley: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 4:46FLAMicheal Haley: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:10NJDDamon Severson: High sticking2 min
- P3 9:48FLAIan McCoshen: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:48NJDStefan Noesen: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Trocheck won the faceoff against Hischier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestVrbata – McGinn – Bjugstad2:10
xG 0.63–0.08 (89%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
- McGinn – Sceviour – Bjugstad4:58
xG 0.20–0.06 (77%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Dadonov – Huberdeau – Barkov11:13
xG 0.24–0.25 (49%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Vrbata – Trocheck – Hunt9:30
xG 0.29–0.32 (48%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPysyk – Matheson16:38
xG 0.89–0.51 (64%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
- Weegar – McCoshen8:58
xG 0.30–0.24 (56%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Yandle – Ekblad16:11
xG 0.26–0.30 (46%)attempts 8–12goals 0–1
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestPalmieri – Hall – Hischier9:56
xG 0.24–0.18 (57%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Gibbons – Coleman – Noesen10:58
xG 0.26–0.21 (56%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Boyle – Hayes – Wood8:00
xG 0.12–0.24 (34%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
- Stafford – Henrique – Bratt7:18
xG 0.13–0.40 (24%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeverson – Butcher2:52
xG 0.14–0.08 (64%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Butcher – Mueller7:56
xG 0.20–0.33 (38%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Greene – Santini14:47
xG 0.12–0.28 (30%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 90% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).