Sat, Nov 11, 2017·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Chicago Blackhawks 4, Carolina Hurricanes 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 015 | 19 | 25 | 11 | 430 |
| CAR | 216 | 110 | 010 | 02 | 338 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:53CARBrock McGinnAssists: Derek Ryan, Justin Williams · Backhand, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 9:01CARJeff SkinnerUnassisted · Snap, 0.05 xG0–2
- P2 7:34CHIAlex DeBrincatAssists: Jonathan Toews, Richard Panik · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–2
- P2 9:58CARBrock McGinnAssists: Derek Ryan · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–3
- P3 3:16CHIAlex DeBrincatAssists: Patrick Kane, Tanner Kero · Snap, 0.08 xG2–3
- P3 11:29CHIGustav ForslingAssists: Brent Seabrook, Richard Panik · Slap, 0.02 xG3–3
- OT 1:44CHIBrandon SaadGWGAssists: Alex DeBrincat, Gustav Forsling · Snap, 0.14 xG4–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 1:43CHITommy Wingels: Holding2 min
- P1 1:57CARNoah Hanifin: Penalty shot slash on breakaway0 min
- P1 15:23CARBrock McGinn: Slashing2 min
- P2 2:07CARJustin Faulk: Interference2 min
- P2 5:34CARMarcus Kruger: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:46CARJustin Williams: Slashing2 min
- P2 16:12CHILance Bouma: Holding2 min
- P3 6:13CHIRyan Hartman: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestAnisimov – Kane – Schmaltz10:35
xG 0.62–0.39 (61%)attempts 17–9goals 0–0
- Sharp – Wingels – Hartman7:07
xG 0.27–0.27 (50%)attempts 9–6goals 0–2
- Bouma – Kero – DeBrincat7:05
xG 0.24–0.51 (32%)attempts 4–13goals 0–1
- Toews – Panik – Saad10:12
xG 0.25–0.90 (21%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Forsling – Rutta13:44
xG 0.51–0.52 (50%)attempts 16–14goals 0–0
- Seabrook – Forsling2:06
xG 0.14–0.15 (49%)attempts 5–6goals 1–1
- Keith – Murphy2:47
xG 0.03–0.07 (28%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Teravainen – Aho10:05
xG 1.01–0.39 (72%)attempts 10–10goals 0–1
- Skinner – Rask – Lindholm9:09
xG 0.65–0.23 (74%)attempts 13–12goals 1–0
- Williams – McGinn – Ryan7:57
xG 0.54–0.17 (76%)attempts 13–7goals 2–1
- Kruger – Nordstrom – Jooris7:02
xG 0.08–0.30 (22%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSlavin – Pesce11:19
xG 0.74–0.24 (76%)attempts 11–14goals 0–1
- van Riemsdyk – Hanifin10:08
xG 0.64–0.15 (81%)attempts 15–7goals 2–0
- Faulk – Hanifin4:39
xG 0.28–0.34 (45%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).