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Ice Lab

Sat, Nov 11, 2017·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville

Pittsburgh Penguins 4, Nashville Predators 5 (SO)

Away

Pittsburgh Penguins

4

Final

Shootout

Home

Nashville Predators

5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 52% of the time.

NSH winsPIT wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
PIT1611626021430
NSH05310112012528

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 11:58PITBryan RustSHAssists: Kris Letang · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–0
  2. P2 2:01NSHKyle TurrisAssists: Miikka Salomaki · Snap, 0.12 xG1–1
  3. P2 3:52NSHP.K. SubbanPPAssists: Filip Forsberg, Viktor Arvidsson · Slap, 0.05 xG1–2
  4. P2 5:29NSHCraig SmithPPAssists: Filip Forsberg, Ryan Johansen · Wrist, 0.34 xG1–3
  5. P2 12:27PITPhil KesselAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Kris Letang · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–3
  6. P3 2:27PITJake GuentzelAssists: Justin Schultz · Backhand, 0.12 xG3–3
  7. P3 4:46NSHCalle JarnkrokAssists: Kyle Turris, Craig Smith · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–4
  8. P3 7:43PITBrian DumoulinAssists: Conor Sheary, Phil Kessel · Snap, 0.15 xG4–4

Shootout

  1. 1. NSH Kyle Turris stopped
  2. 2. PIT Evgeni Malkin stopped
  3. 3. NSH Kevin Fiala scored
  4. 4. PIT Sidney Crosby scored
  5. 5. NSH Filip Forsberg scored
  6. 6. PIT Kris Letang stopped
Penalties (12)
  1. P1 0:54NSHCraig Smith: Hooking2 min
  2. P1 10:58PITConor Sheary: Holding the stick2 min
  3. P1 16:14PITJake Guentzel: Roughing2 min
  4. P1 16:14NSHRyan Johansen: Cross checking2 min
  5. P2 3:49PITTristan Jarry: Tripping2 min · PPG
  6. P2 5:16PITKris Letang: Roughing2 min · PPG
  7. P2 8:44NSHMattias Ekholm: High sticking2 min
  8. P2 12:45NSHP.K. Subban: Holding2 min
  9. P2 19:04PITJustin Schultz: Holding2 min
  10. P3 10:15NSHMiikka Salomaki: Cross checking2 min
  11. P3 10:51PITPhil Kessel: Slashing2 min
  12. OT 4:39PITEvgeni Malkin: Tripping2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

PIT00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0NSH
46% to win54% to win
← PIT attackNSH attack →
  1. P1 20:00Turris won the faceoff against Crosby
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

PITNSH
30Shots on goal28
3.3Expected goals3.3
68Shot attempts62
33Faceoffs won33
4Power plays6
14Penalty minutes10
22Hits24
18Blocked shots23
11Giveaways11
4Takeaways7

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Pittsburgh Penguins

Forward lines

  1. bestCrosby – Rust – Guentzel11:52

    xG 0.56–0.13 (81%)attempts 18–5goals 0–0

  2. Malkin – Kessel – Hagelin9:18

    xG 0.48–0.43 (53%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0

  3. Hornqvist – Sheahan – Sheary6:26

    xG 0.09–0.17 (35%)attempts 4–6goals 0–1

  4. Reaves – McKegg – Kuhnhackl4:54

    xG 0.09–0.18 (34%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestLetang – Dumoulin15:22

    xG 0.88–0.42 (67%)attempts 16–11goals 1–0

  2. Cole – Schultz10:20

    xG 0.50–0.48 (51%)attempts 14–9goals 2–1

  3. Cole – Ruhwedel2:16

    xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0

Nashville Predators

Forward lines

  1. bestMcLeod – Watson – Sissons3:03

    xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0

  2. Jarnkrok – Watson – Salomaki3:17

    xG 0.29–0.12 (70%)attempts 3–6goals 0–1

  3. Turris – Smith – Fiala10:34

    xG 0.24–0.46 (35%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0

  4. Johansen – Forsberg – Arvidsson10:00

    xG 0.30–0.55 (35%)attempts 8–12goals 0–1

Defence pairs

  1. bestWeber – Irwin7:30

    xG 0.43–0.10 (81%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0

  2. Emelin – Subban12:54

    xG 0.63–0.71 (47%)attempts 10–15goals 0–2

  3. Josi – Ekholm16:47

    xG 0.48–0.73 (40%)attempts 20–20goals 1–1

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

NSH 3.3 xGPIT 3.3 xG
0123P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

NSHPIT

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.

Excitement 95/100 · #75 of 1271 this seasonSwing 2.52 · 8 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 34% (winner's lowest chance)
PIT 100%5050%50NSH 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +28 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 52% of the time.

NSH winsPIT wins

Simulated goal difference (NSH − PIT), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).