Sat, Nov 11, 2017·Gila River Arena, Glendale
Winnipeg Jets 4, Arizona Coyotes 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 07 | 17 | 37 | 421 |
| ARI | 19 | 010 | 011 | 130 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:33ARIZac RinaldoAssists: Alex Goligoski, Derek Stepan · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P2 14:04WPGMatt HendricksUnassisted · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–1
- P3 2:31WPGMark ScheifelePPGWGAssists: Blake Wheeler, Patrik Laine · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–1
- P3 8:01WPGKyle ConnorAssists: Mark Scheifele, Blake Wheeler · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–1
- P3 19:43WPGPatrik LaineENUnassisted · Backhand, 0.58 xG4–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 3:16WPGBlake Wheeler: Slashing2 min
- P2 4:50ARIJason Demers: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:45WPGAdam Lowry: Boarding2 min
- P2 18:35WPGJacob Trouba: Hooking2 min
- P3 1:28ARIChristian Fischer: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 4:55WPGMatt Hendricks: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dvorak won the faceoff against Scheifele
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestHendricks – Matthias – Armia5:17
xG 0.30–0.11 (74%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- Little – Ehlers – Laine11:43
xG 0.39–0.30 (57%)attempts 12–13goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Scheifele – Connor13:28
xG 0.49–0.47 (51%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
- Lowry – Copp – Tanev8:37
xG 0.02–0.41 (5%)attempts 2–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEnstrom – Byfuglien15:45
xG 0.79–0.54 (59%)attempts 16–14goals 2–0
- Byfuglien – Kulikov2:53
xG 0.08–0.01 (88%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Trouba – Morrissey13:01
xG 0.25–0.22 (53%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestStepan – Domi – Keller6:44
xG 0.44–0.18 (71%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Rieder – Dvorak – Fischer5:18
xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Rieder – Perlini – Dvorak2:56
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Richardson – Rinaldo – Martinook8:18
xG 0.30–0.32 (48%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestConnauton – Mermis6:42
xG 0.38–0.04 (91%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Goligoski – Schenn14:12
xG 0.64–0.38 (63%)attempts 15–9goals 1–1
- Schenn – Connauton2:31
xG 0.13–0.05 (72%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).