Tue, Nov 14, 2017·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Buffalo Sabres 4, Pittsburgh Penguins 5 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 213 | 213 | 06 | 00 | 432 |
| PIT | 115 | 216 | 113 | 11 | 545 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:45BUFEvander KaneAssists: Jack Eichel, Sam Reinhart · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–0
- P1 16:53BUFSam ReinhartPPAssists: Marco Scandella, Kyle Okposo · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–0
- P1 19:41PITPatric HornqvistAssists: Riley Sheahan · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–1
- P2 0:16BUFJack EichelUnassisted · Backhand, 0.08 xG3–1
- P2 4:28PITConor ShearyAssists: Patric Hornqvist, Olli Maatta · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–2
- P2 17:15PITSidney CrosbyPPAssists: Patric Hornqvist, Phil Kessel · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–3
- P2 19:53BUFBenoit PouliotPPAssists: Sam Reinhart · Backhand, 0.13 xG4–3
- P3 13:49PITPhil KesselAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Ian Cole · Snap, 0.11 xG4–4
- OT 0:16PITConor ShearyGWGAssists: Sidney Crosby, Kris Letang · Wrist, 0.12 xG4–5
Penalties (12)
- P1 5:55BUFKyle Okposo: Slashing2 min
- P1 14:19PITIan Cole: Roughing2 min
- P1 14:19BUFJack Eichel: Roughing2 min
- P1 14:19BUFEvander Kane: Roughing2 min
- P1 15:58PITEvgeni Malkin: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 8:56BUFMatt Moulson: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:05BUFBenoit Pouliot: Cross checking2 min
- P2 10:21BUFMarco Scandella: Slashing2 min
- P2 10:21PITPatric Hornqvist: Interference2 min
- P2 13:17PITKris Letang: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:21BUFNick Baptiste: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 18:38PITRyan Reaves: Elbowing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Eichel
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- Pouliot – Okposo – O'Reilly10:14
xG 0.34–0.29 (53%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1
- Pominville – Moulson – Larsson7:15
xG 0.19–0.20 (49%)attempts 4–7goals 0–1
- Nolan – Girgensons – Baptiste4:59
xG 0.05–0.20 (19%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
- Kane – Reinhart – Eichel13:38
xG 0.32–1.03 (24%)attempts 8–23goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestGorges – Beaulieu11:56
xG 0.51–0.33 (60%)attempts 9–11goals 0–1
- Scandella – Beaulieu2:44
xG 0.14–0.19 (43%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Falk – McCabe2:17
xG 0.03–0.16 (17%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestHornqvist – Sheahan – Sheary8:32
xG 0.47–0.10 (82%)attempts 12–2goals 2–0
- Crosby – Rust – Guentzel13:10
xG 0.66–0.33 (67%)attempts 20–9goals 0–1
- Reaves – McKegg – Kuhnhackl7:23
xG 0.09–0.14 (39%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Malkin – Kessel – Hagelin9:42
xG 0.46–0.64 (42%)attempts 13–10goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Dumoulin16:50
xG 1.20–0.37 (76%)attempts 25–8goals 1–1
- Maatta – Ruhwedel12:12
xG 0.44–0.18 (70%)attempts 14–5goals 1–0
- Cole – Schultz12:19
xG 0.49–0.66 (43%)attempts 16–11goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).