Wed, Nov 15, 2017·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Calgary Flames 2, Detroit Red Wings 8
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 111 | 110 | 07 | 228 |
| DET | 412 | 28 | 27 | 827 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:35DETAndreas AthanasiouUnassisted · Deflected, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 7:25DETGustav NyquistAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Anthony Mantha · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–2
- P1 8:37CGYMicheal FerlandPPAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, TJ Brodie · Wrist, 0.34 xG1–2
- P1 15:44DETAnthony ManthaPPGWGAssists: Andreas Athanasiou, Mike Green · Wrist, 0.43 xG1–3
- P1 17:17DETDylan LarkinSHUnassisted · Snap, 0.02 xG1–4
- P2 4:27DETAnthony ManthaPPAssists: Frans Nielsen, Mike Green · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–5
- P2 12:34CGYJohnny GaudreauAssists: Micheal Ferland, Dougie Hamilton · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–5
- P2 19:16DETJustin AbdelkaderAssists: Dylan Larkin · Slap, 0.14 xG2–6
- P3 16:10DETAndreas AthanasiouPPAssists: Dylan Larkin, Mike Green · Wrist, 0.29 xG2–7
- P3 18:37DETLuke GlendeningPPAssists: David Booth, Nick Jensen · Backhand, 0.35 xG2–8
Penalties (26)
- P1 8:13DETGustav Nyquist: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 8:52CGYJohnny Gaudreau: High sticking2 min
- P1 14:38CGYMikael Backlund: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 17:01DETLuke Witkowski: Cross checking2 min
- P2 4:21CGYMikael Backlund: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 15:50DETJustin Abdelkader: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:41DETJimmy Howard: Slashing2 min
- P3 14:04CGYBrett Kulak: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P3 14:04DETLuke Witkowski: Fighting5 min
- P3 14:04DETLuke Witkowski: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 14:04DETLuke Witkowski: Misconduct10 min
- P3 14:04CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 14:04CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Spearing5 min
- P3 14:04CGYTravis Hamonic: Fighting5 min
- P3 14:04CGYTravis Hamonic: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 14:04DETJimmy Howard: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 14:04DETAnthony Mantha: Fighting5 min
- P3 14:04DETAnthony Mantha: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 14:04DETAnthony Mantha: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 14:04CGYJon Gillies: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 15:17CGYMikael Backlund: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 15:17CGYMikael Backlund: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 16:10CGYTroy Brouwer: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:55DETJonathan Ericsson: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:55DETJonathan Ericsson: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:55CGYSam Bennett: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nielsen won the faceoff against Monahan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestJagr – Jankowski – Bennett8:26
xG 0.48–0.16 (76%)attempts 8–4goals 0–1
- Frolik – Backlund – Tkachuk10:32
xG 0.61–0.39 (61%)attempts 17–7goals 0–1
- Versteeg – Brouwer – Lazar6:57
xG 0.07–0.09 (41%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Ferland – Gaudreau – Monahan10:35
xG 0.54–0.70 (44%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestStone – Kulak12:56
xG 0.91–0.11 (89%)attempts 17–5goals 0–0
- Giordano – Hamilton16:04
xG 1.01–0.68 (60%)attempts 21–12goals 1–0
- Hamonic – Brodie12:30
xG 0.06–1.04 (6%)attempts 3–13goals 0–3
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestTatar – Athanasiou – Larkin11:05
xG 0.51–0.42 (55%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Nielsen – Abdelkader – Glendening7:47
xG 0.33–0.37 (47%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
- Booth – Wilson – Athanasiou3:32
xG 0.04–0.18 (19%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
- Zetterberg – Nyquist – Mantha9:14
xG 0.22–0.49 (31%)attempts 6–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestKronwall – Witkowski2:51
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Daley – Ericsson4:13
xG 0.37–0.24 (60%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Witkowski – Ouellet2:04
xG 0.04–0.01 (88%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).