Wed, Nov 15, 2017·United Center, Chicago
New York Rangers 3, Chicago Blackhawks 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 111 | 08 | 29 | 328 |
| CHI | 09 | 116 | 518 | 643 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:58NYRMika ZibanejadAssists: Chris Kreider, Pavel Buchnevich · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
- P2 19:08CHIAlex DeBrincatAssists: Richard Panik, Duncan Keith · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–1
- P3 1:07CHIArtem AnisimovAssists: Patrick Kane, Nick Schmaltz · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–2
- P3 1:53CHIJohn HaydenAssists: Cody Franson, Duncan Keith · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–3
- P3 5:14CHIArtem AnisimovPPGWGAssists: Cody Franson, Nick Schmaltz · Wrist, 0.43 xG1–4
- P3 7:08NYRKevin HayesAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Rick Nash · Wrist, 0.23 xG2–4
- P3 11:56NYRRick NashUnassisted · Backhand, 0.06 xG3–4
- P3 16:12CHIArtem AnisimovAssists: Nick Schmaltz, Richard Panik · Tip-in, 0.18 xG3–5
- P3 18:30CHIJonathan ToewsENAssists: Richard Panik, Brent Seabrook · Wrist, 0.67 xG3–6
Penalties (7)
- P1 1:32NYRJ.T. Miller: Hooking2 min
- P1 6:42CHINick Schmaltz: High sticking2 min
- P1 12:11NYRBrady Skjei: Holding2 min
- P1 14:36CHIJohn Hayden: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 11:06NYRMarc Staal: Elbowing2 min
- P2 16:48NYRJesper Fast: Interference2 min
- P3 5:02NYRMats Zuccarello: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Hayes
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestNash – Zuccarello – Hayes9:58
xG 0.78–0.17 (82%)attempts 11–9goals 2–0
- Grabner – Fast – Nieves6:33
xG 0.13–0.13 (49%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Desharnais – Miller – Vesey11:38
xG 0.46–0.50 (48%)attempts 13–13goals 0–1
- Kreider – Zibanejad – Buchnevich7:58
xG 0.47–1.16 (29%)attempts 12–10goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestShattenkirk – Skjei12:04
xG 0.81–0.34 (70%)attempts 14–6goals 2–1
- McDonagh – Holden14:08
xG 0.54–0.51 (51%)attempts 15–12goals 1–1
- Staal – Kampfer10:08
xG 0.35–0.69 (34%)attempts 9–21goals 0–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestAnisimov – Kane – Schmaltz10:36
xG 1.55–0.40 (79%)attempts 18–11goals 2–0
- Bouma – Wingels – Hayden4:33
xG 0.33–0.06 (85%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Sharp – Hartman – DeBrincat7:08
xG 0.30–0.13 (70%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Toews – Panik – Saad10:05
xG 0.47–0.71 (40%)attempts 13–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – Seabrook2:35
xG 0.73–0.02 (97%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Seabrook – Murphy10:30
xG 0.40–0.11 (78%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Forsling – Rutta12:56
xG 0.94–0.70 (57%)attempts 17–17goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).