Thu, Nov 16, 2017·Centre Bell, Montreal
Arizona Coyotes 5, Montréal Canadiens 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 09 | 315 | 28 | 532 |
| MTL | 212 | 213 | 012 | 437 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:48MTLBrendan GallagherAssists: Charles Hudon · Backhand, 0.15 xG0–1
- P1 13:56MTLPaul ByronAssists: Alex Galchenyuk, Jonathan Drouin · Snap, 0.04 xG0–2
- P2 4:30ARIBrad RichardsonAssists: Alex Goligoski · Slap, 0.05 xG1–2
- P2 9:37ARIChristian DvorakAssists: Christian Fischer, Anthony Duclair · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–2
- P2 15:20MTLJoe MorrowAssists: Tomas Plekanec · Slap, 0.05 xG2–3
- P2 19:09ARITobias RiederAssists: Christian Dvorak, Jordan Martinook · Slap, 0.12 xG3–3
- P2 19:49MTLShea WeberAssists: Tomas Plekanec · Slap, 0.05 xG3–4
- P3 4:54ARIDerek StepanPPUnassisted · Wrist, 0.16 xG4–4
- P3 10:10ARIChristian FischerPPGWGAssists: Brendan Perlini, Clayton Keller · Tip-in, 0.17 xG5–4
Penalties (17)
- P1 0:25MTLKarl Alzner: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 15:06ARIJason Demers: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:06MTLMax Pacioretty: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:49ARIClayton Keller: Interference2 min
- P2 2:40ARIZac Rinaldo: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:40MTLNicolas Deslauriers: Fighting5 min
- P2 6:06MTLJacob de la Rose: Holding2 min
- P2 7:36MTLShea Weber: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 0:00ARIOliver Ekman-Larsson: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:00MTLCharles Hudon: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:00MTLTomas Plekanec: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P2 0:00ARIBrad Richardson: Fighting5 min
- P2 0:00ARIBrad Richardson: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:46MTLBrendan Gallagher: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:47ARIJordan Martinook: Illegal check to head2 min
- P3 9:03MTLShea Weber: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 17:42ARIChristian Dvorak: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Plekanec won the faceoff against Dvorak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestRichardson – Fischer – Keller8:02
xG 0.54–0.45 (55%)attempts 6–12goals 1–1
- Stepan – Rieder – Perlini8:09
xG 0.47–0.43 (52%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
- Kempe – Martinook – Duclair2:04
xG 0.06–0.09 (41%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Duclair – Domi – Dvorak5:58
xG 0.05–0.29 (15%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestConnauton – Hanley3:36
xG 0.69–0.17 (80%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
- Goligoski – Schenn8:10
xG 0.66–0.44 (60%)attempts 6–15goals 0–1
- Goligoski – Demers6:39
xG 0.41–0.20 (67%)attempts 6–7goals 2–1
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestPacioretty – Shaw – Danault9:32
xG 0.54–0.16 (77%)attempts 15–6goals 0–1
- Plekanec – Gallagher – Hudon8:24
xG 0.68–0.34 (67%)attempts 16–3goals 3–0
- Deslauriers – Froese – de la Rose4:05
xG 0.09–0.33 (22%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Byron – Galchenyuk – Drouin11:39
xG 0.56–0.88 (39%)attempts 15–14goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Benn9:47
xG 0.45–0.23 (66%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Morrow – Mete2:47
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 2–0
- Petry – Alzner10:51
xG 0.66–0.57 (54%)attempts 15–5goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).