Sat, Nov 18, 2017·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Arizona Coyotes 3, Ottawa Senators 2 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 18 | 011 | 18 | 11 | 328 |
| OTT | 18 | 112 | 011 | 01 | 232 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:49OTTMark StoneAssists: Tom Pyatt, Johnny Oduya · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 19:19ARIAnthony DuclairAssists: Jason Demers · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–1
- P2 1:48OTTMark BorowieckiAssists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Cody Ceci · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–2
- P3 11:32ARIAnthony DuclairPPAssists: Alex Goligoski, Oliver Ekman-Larsson · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–2
- OT 1:23ARIAnthony DuclairGWGAssists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Derek Stepan · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 7:23OTTTom Pyatt: Holding2 min
- P2 9:10OTTDerick Brassard: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:18ARILuke Schenn: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:17ARIJason Demers: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:19ARIAlex Goligoski: High sticking2 min
- P3 2:47ARIAnthony Duclair: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 10:10OTTRyan Dzingel: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P3 18:36ARITobias Rieder: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dvorak won the faceoff against Brassard
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestStepan – Rieder – Perlini10:05
xG 0.69–0.14 (83%)attempts 15–3goals 0–0
- Rinaldo – Cousins – Martinook3:29
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–1
- Richardson – Fischer – Keller11:26
xG 0.15–0.35 (30%)attempts 7–15goals 0–1
- Duclair – Domi – Dvorak11:54
xG 0.44–1.00 (30%)attempts 10–20goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Goligoski – Hanley10:21
xG 0.52–0.52 (50%)attempts 9–13goals 0–1
- Goligoski – Schenn4:12
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Demers – Ekman-Larsson13:58
xG 0.39–0.76 (34%)attempts 12–13goals 1–1
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestRyan – Duchene – Dzingel6:53
xG 0.93–0.10 (91%)attempts 16–7goals 0–0
- Pyatt – Brassard – Stone9:35
xG 0.68–0.06 (92%)attempts 14–4goals 1–0
- DiDomenico – Hoffman – Pageau2:12
xG 0.14–0.03 (84%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Brassard – Hoffman – Stone2:53
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Claesson11:43
xG 0.81–0.20 (80%)attempts 18–9goals 0–0
- Oduya – Phaneuf9:31
xG 0.58–0.04 (93%)attempts 7–2goals 1–0
- Karlsson – Harpur3:11
xG 0.21–0.25 (46%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).