Sat, Nov 18, 2017·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Carolina Hurricanes 3, Buffalo Sabres 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 08 | 114 | 211 | 333 |
| BUF | 04 | 09 | 112 | 125 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 14:46CARJustin WilliamsAssists: Marcus Kruger, Brett Pesce · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–0
- P3 12:27BUFEvander KaneAssists: Ryan O'Reilly · Wrist, 0.26 xG1–1
- P3 15:15CARSebastian AhoGWGAssists: Teuvo Teravainen, Haydn Fleury · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–1
- P3 19:19CARJoakim NordstromENAssists: Marcus Kruger, Jaccob Slavin · Wrist, 0.67 xG3–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 4:49BUFKyle Okposo: Hooking2 min
- P1 5:33BUFZemgus Girgensons: Delaying game2 min
- P1 15:09BUFVictor Antipin: Holding2 min
- P1 17:37CARMarcus Kruger: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:33CARJustin Williams: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:17BUFJohan Larsson: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eichel won the faceoff against Lindholm
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestKruger – Nordstrom – Di Giuseppe9:26
xG 0.36–0.25 (59%)attempts 14–5goals 0–0
- Skinner – Rask – Lindholm10:17
xG 0.16–0.14 (54%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Williams – McGinn – Ryan8:09
xG 0.06–0.32 (17%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
- Staal – Teravainen – Aho12:05
xG 0.34–0.80 (30%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Hanifin10:49
xG 0.12–0.05 (72%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Fleury2:20
xG 0.07–0.02 (75%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Faulk – Fleury13:39
xG 0.43–0.51 (46%)attempts 14–10goals 0–1
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestKane – Reinhart – Eichel14:34
xG 0.80–0.51 (61%)attempts 12–13goals 0–1
- Nolan – Girgensons – Criscuolo5:39
xG 0.24–0.08 (76%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Okposo – Larsson – Griffith9:15
xG 0.04–0.04 (48%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Pominville – Pouliot – O'Reilly9:59
xG 0.12–0.66 (16%)attempts 6–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestFalk – Scandella12:47
xG 0.78–0.44 (64%)attempts 11–10goals 0–1
- Gorges – Scandella2:16
xG 0.23–0.03 (87%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Beaulieu – McCabe15:32
xG 0.44–0.41 (51%)attempts 13–15goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).