Mon, Nov 20, 2017·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Arizona Coyotes 4, Toronto Maple Leafs 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 110 | 17 | 214 | 431 |
| TOR | 08 | 18 | 012 | 128 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:53ARIBrendan PerliniPPAssists: Derek Stepan, Clayton Keller · Snap, 0.12 xG1–0
- P2 0:33TORJames van RiemsdykPPAssists: Nazem Kadri, Mitch Marner · Snap, 0.44 xG1–1
- P2 18:17ARIOliver Ekman-LarssonPPGWGAssists: Clayton Keller, Max Domi · Snap, 0.03 xG2–1
- P3 18:54ARIMax DomiENAssists: Christian Dvorak, Anthony Duclair · Wrist, 0.72 xG3–1
- P3 19:19ARITobias RiederENAssists: Brad Richardson, Niklas Hjalmarsson · Wrist, 0.74 xG4–1
Penalties (5)
- P1 8:13TORConnor Carrick: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 19:52ARIKevin Connauton: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 11:48TORRon Hainsey: Holding2 min
- P2 18:12TORMitch Marner: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 19:25TORZach Hyman: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nylander won the faceoff against Dvorak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestRinaldo – Cousins – Martinook6:43
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Duclair – Domi – Dvorak10:34
xG 0.14–0.25 (36%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Stepan – Rieder – Perlini9:45
xG 0.26–0.41 (38%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
- Richardson – Fischer – Keller9:14
xG 0.22–0.40 (35%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – Demers3:22
xG 0.19–0.06 (76%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Demers – Ekman-Larsson15:09
xG 0.37–0.43 (46%)attempts 16–14goals 0–0
- Schenn – Connauton9:55
xG 0.09–0.37 (20%)attempts 2–10goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestMarleau – Komarov – Kadri9:25
xG 0.52–0.15 (78%)attempts 14–4goals 0–0
- Hyman – Nylander – Matthews10:17
xG 0.53–0.20 (73%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Bozak – Marner10:09
xG 0.33–0.15 (69%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Hyman – Marner – Matthews3:14
xG 0.25–0.16 (61%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Rielly13:49
xG 0.82–0.20 (80%)attempts 20–7goals 0–0
- Gardiner – Zaitsev18:26
xG 0.82–0.48 (63%)attempts 22–11goals 0–0
- Hainsey – Carrick2:28
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).