Wed, Nov 22, 2017·PNC Arena, Raleigh
New York Rangers 6, Carolina Hurricanes 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 311 | 05 | 311 | 627 |
| CAR | 117 | 07 | 09 | 133 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:52NYRChris KreiderAssists: Brendan Smith, J.T. Miller · Snap, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 2:26NYRMika ZibanejadGWGAssists: Brady Skjei · Wrist, 0.00 xG2–0
- P1 8:50CARSebastian AhoPPAssists: Teuvo Teravainen, Justin Faulk · Slap, 0.05 xG2–1
- P1 10:47NYRPaul CareyAssists: Jimmy Vesey, Nick Holden · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–1
- P3 0:20NYRChris KreiderPPAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Mika Zibanejad · Tip-in, 0.17 xG4–1
- P3 5:45NYRJesper FastAssists: Kevin Hayes, Rick Nash · Snap, 0.18 xG5–1
- P3 12:26NYRJesper FastAssists: Steven Kampfer · Snap, 0.10 xG6–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 7:47NYRChris Kreider: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P1 13:21NYRBoo Nieves: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:14NYRPaul Carey: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:58NYRPaul Carey: Boarding2 min
- P2 18:49CARTeuvo Teravainen: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P3 0:32NYRBrendan Smith: Cross checking2 min
- P3 9:44CARJeff Skinner: Closing hand on puck2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Miller won the faceoff against Lindholm
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestCarey – Vesey – Nieves8:25
xG 0.89–0.29 (75%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Kreider – Zibanejad – Buchnevich9:46
xG 0.46–0.24 (66%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Nash – Hayes – Fast9:46
xG 0.35–0.34 (51%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
- Grabner – Zuccarello – Miller9:33
xG 0.29–0.72 (29%)attempts 6–17goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSmith – Holden14:34
xG 1.82–0.33 (85%)attempts 25–12goals 4–0
- Holden – Skjei2:05
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Staal – Kampfer11:52
xG 0.33–0.76 (30%)attempts 7–14goals 1–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestWilliams – McGinn – Ryan9:11
xG 0.36–0.12 (75%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Kruger – Nordstrom – Jooris8:58
xG 0.34–0.10 (77%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Staal – Teravainen – Aho8:36
xG 0.34–0.65 (34%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
- Skinner – Di Giuseppe – Lindholm10:05
xG 0.52–1.28 (29%)attempts 13–12goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestFaulk – Fleury10:46
xG 0.77–0.25 (76%)attempts 17–5goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Fleury4:27
xG 0.24–0.12 (67%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Hanifin8:19
xG 0.35–0.72 (32%)attempts 6–10goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).