Fri, Nov 24, 2017·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Ottawa Senators 2, Columbus Blue Jackets 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 14 | 18 | 014 | 226 |
| CBJ | 115 | 110 | 37 | 532 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:56OTTTom PyattAssists: Derick Brassard, Mark Stone · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 11:22CBJCam AtkinsonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–1
- P2 7:28CBJMarkus NutivaaraAssists: Josh Anderson, Ryan Murray · Snap, 0.01 xG1–2
- P2 9:00OTTMike HoffmanAssists: Ryan Dzingel · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–2
- P3 10:40CBJCam AtkinsonGWGAssists: David Savard · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–3
- P3 13:27CBJNick FolignoAssists: Sonny Milano · Snap, 0.04 xG2–4
- P3 19:10CBJTyler MotteENAssists: Oliver Bjorkstrand, Lukas Sedlak · Wrist, 0.64 xG2–5
Penalties (5)
- P2 0:26CBJBrandon Dubinsky: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:59OTTRyan Dzingel: Slashing2 min
- P2 14:22OTTJean-Gabriel Pageau: Slashing2 min
- P2 16:45CBJPierre-Luc Dubois: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:59CBJCam Atkinson: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dubinsky won the faceoff against Brassard
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestPyatt – Brassard – Stone9:44
xG 0.41–0.10 (80%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Thompson – Dumont – Paul4:56
xG 0.15–0.10 (61%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Ryan – Duchene – Dzingel2:49
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Hoffman – Duchene – Dzingel5:37
xG 0.24–0.43 (36%)attempts 6–7goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestOduya – Ceci2:51
xG 0.14–0.06 (72%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Harpur – Chabot2:39
xG 0.07–0.03 (73%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Phaneuf – Chabot2:50
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestDubinsky – Atkinson – Jenner9:53
xG 0.55–0.20 (73%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Schroeder – Sedlak – Motte5:18
xG 0.26–0.11 (70%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Anderson – Panarin – Dubois10:55
xG 0.39–0.25 (61%)attempts 10–6goals 0–2
- Foligno – Atkinson – Milano3:12
xG 0.06–0.07 (46%)attempts 2–1goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Savard13:44
xG 0.68–0.24 (74%)attempts 13–7goals 1–1
- Murray – Nutivaara13:37
xG 0.65–0.35 (65%)attempts 15–12goals 2–1
- Jones – Werenski17:25
xG 0.55–0.45 (55%)attempts 19–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).