Fri, Nov 24, 2017·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Toronto Maple Leafs 5, Carolina Hurricanes 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 91% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 04 | 412 | 19 | 525 |
| CAR | 014 | 113 | 320 | 447 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:53TORZach HymanAssists: Jake Gardiner, Nazem Kadri · Wrist, 0.26 xG1–0
- P2 7:14TORJosh LeivoAssists: Andreas Borgman · Snap, 0.10 xG2–0
- P2 11:37TORRon HainseyAssists: James van Riemsdyk, Tyler Bozak · Snap, 0.06 xG3–0
- P2 13:35CARDerek RyanAssists: Jeff Skinner, Justin Williams · Wrist, 0.39 xG3–1
- P2 18:24TORJames van RiemsdykAssists: William Nylander, Ron Hainsey · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–1
- P3 3:08CARJordan StaalAssists: Justin Faulk, Teuvo Teravainen · Wrist, 0.13 xG4–2
- P3 5:27TORPatrick MarleauPPGWGAssists: Auston Matthews, Jake Gardiner · Tip-in, 0.16 xG5–2
- P3 13:58CARElias LindholmAssists: Noah Hanifin, Brock McGinn · Wrist, 0.28 xG5–3
- P3 15:49CARNoah HanifinAssists: Jeff Skinner, Justin Williams · Snap, 0.02 xG5–4
Penalties (4)
- P1 4:47TORZach Hyman: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:40TORRon Hainsey: Interference2 min
- P1 17:48CARDerek Ryan: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:55CARJeff Skinner: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kadri won the faceoff against Kruger
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestMarleau – Komarov – Kadri2:44
xG 0.24–0.14 (64%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Hyman – Marner – Matthews12:22
xG 0.49–0.49 (50%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
- Komarov – Kadri – Leivo4:58
xG 0.14–0.18 (44%)attempts 4–6goals 1–0
- Marleau – Leivo – Brown2:14
xG 0.04–0.42 (9%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Hainsey – Zaitsev2:13
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Carrick – Borgman9:57
xG 0.38–0.59 (39%)attempts 10–11goals 1–1
- Gardiner – Carrick2:47
xG 0.00–0.28 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestWilliams – Skinner – Ryan12:58
xG 2.06–0.47 (82%)attempts 25–8goals 1–1
- Rask – McGinn – Lindholm9:53
xG 1.09–0.19 (85%)attempts 16–6goals 1–0
- Staal – Teravainen – Aho13:00
xG 0.99–0.42 (70%)attempts 19–10goals 0–2
- Kruger – Nordstrom – Di Giuseppe5:42
xG 0.01–0.08 (14%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFaulk – Hanifin5:43
xG 1.30–0.02 (98%)attempts 13–2goals 2–0
- Slavin – Pesce13:53
xG 0.71–0.18 (80%)attempts 17–6goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Hanifin8:00
xG 0.77–0.28 (73%)attempts 13–6goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 91% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).