Fri, Nov 24, 2017·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Calgary Flames 4, Dallas Stars 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 012 | 314 | 112 | 438 |
| DAL | 113 | 218 | 310 | 641 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:22DALAntoine RousselAssists: Tyler Pitlick · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
- P2 0:39CGYMicheal FerlandAssists: Sean Monahan · Slap, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 2:53CGYJohnny GaudreauUnassisted · Snap, 0.11 xG2–1
- P2 4:20DALTyler SeguinAssists: Mattias Janmark, John Klingberg · Tip-in, 0.40 xG2–2
- P2 17:31CGYSean MonahanPPAssists: Troy Brouwer, Johnny Gaudreau · Snap, 0.50 xG3–2
- P2 18:30DALAlexander RadulovAssists: Devin Shore · Snap, 0.38 xG3–3
- P3 6:04CGYSean MonahanAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Mike Smith · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–3
- P3 12:12DALGemel SmithAssists: Brett Ritchie · Backhand, 0.08 xG4–4
- P3 14:03DALTyler SeguinGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.09 xG4–5
- P3 19:00DALTyler SeguinENAssists: Alexander Radulov · Wrist, 0.67 xG4–6
Penalties (9)
- P1 13:38DALJulius Honka: Slashing2 min
- P2 3:46CGYCurtis Lazar: High sticking2 min
- P2 3:46DALEsa Lindell: High sticking2 min
- P2 5:14CGYMark Giordano: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:29CGYBrett Kulak: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 17:06DALAntoine Roussel: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P3 6:30CGYTJ Brodie: Holding2 min
- P3 7:10CGYTravis Hamonic: Delaying game2 min
- P3 15:44DALJamie Benn: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backlund won the faceoff against Faksa
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestJagr – Jankowski – Bennett8:53
xG 1.05–0.23 (82%)attempts 15–9goals 0–0
- Frolik – Backlund – Tkachuk10:03
xG 0.46–0.17 (73%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Ferland – Gaudreau – Monahan11:37
xG 0.58–0.32 (64%)attempts 15–5goals 3–0
- Versteeg – Brouwer – Lazar5:50
xG 0.28–0.42 (40%)attempts 5–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHamonic – Brodie16:16
xG 1.27–0.40 (76%)attempts 19–14goals 0–0
- Giordano – Hamilton15:17
xG 0.98–0.87 (53%)attempts 17–11goals 2–1
- Stone – Kulak10:59
xG 0.49–0.52 (48%)attempts 12–11goals 1–1
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestHanzal – Ritchie – Smith6:46
xG 0.37–0.03 (91%)attempts 9–1goals 1–0
- Radulov – Benn – Shore11:12
xG 0.41–0.15 (74%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
- Roussel – Pitlick – Faksa9:28
xG 0.47–0.50 (49%)attempts 11–13goals 1–2
- Spezza – Seguin – Janmark9:35
xG 0.39–1.20 (25%)attempts 10–15goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamhuis – Pateryn13:47
xG 0.80–0.69 (54%)attempts 12–16goals 2–3
- Klingberg – Lindell17:45
xG 0.49–0.76 (39%)attempts 16–18goals 0–0
- Hamhuis – Honka3:26
xG 0.15–0.62 (19%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).