Sat, Nov 25, 2017·Gila River Arena, Glendale
Vegas Golden Knights 4, Arizona Coyotes 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 06 | 314 | 18 | 428 |
| ARI | 07 | 08 | 211 | 226 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 7:23VGKTomas NosekSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P2 7:54VGKWilliam KarlssonAssists: Jonathan Marchessault · Slap, 0.05 xG2–0
- P2 9:05VGKErik HaulaPPGWGAssists: Jonathan Marchessault, Shea Theodore · Wrist, 0.39 xG3–0
- P3 0:21ARIOliver Ekman-LarssonAssists: Derek Stepan · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–1
- P3 10:35ARIBrendan PerliniAssists: Derek Stepan, Max Domi · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–2
- P3 19:58VGKJonathan MarchessaultENAssists: William Karlsson, Reilly Smith · Wrist, 0.68 xG4–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 8:02VGKBrayden McNabb: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:21VGKDeryk Engelland: Interference2 min
- P1 16:39ARIZac Rinaldo: Holding2 min
- P2 4:28ARIClayton Keller: High sticking2 min
- P2 5:40VGKErik Haula: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 8:43ARIBrendan Perlini: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P3 6:29VGKBrayden McNabb: Interference2 min
- P3 7:04VGKPierre-Edouard Bellemare: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:21ARIJason Demers: High sticking double minor4 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Haula won the faceoff against Stepan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- Neal – Haula – Lindberg8:07
xG 0.08–0.20 (30%)attempts 5–11goals 0–1
- Eakin – Leipsic – Tuch7:35
xG 0.14–0.26 (35%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Smith – Karlsson – Marchessault9:25
xG 0.08–0.30 (20%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Carrier – Bellemare – Nosek6:37
xG 0.13–0.60 (18%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Miller – Hunt9:15
xG 0.15–0.14 (52%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- McNabb – Schmidt14:24
xG 0.10–0.73 (11%)attempts 9–20goals 0–2
- Engelland – Theodore12:02
xG 0.21–1.08 (16%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestRichardson – Fischer – Keller8:31
xG 0.77–0.12 (87%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
- Stepan – Rieder – Perlini8:11
xG 0.17–0.04 (79%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Rinaldo – Cousins – Martinook5:06
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- Duclair – Domi – Dvorak4:30
xG 0.12–0.19 (38%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – Hjalmarsson13:21
xG 0.79–0.10 (89%)attempts 16–8goals 1–1
- Schenn – Connauton9:39
xG 0.64–0.24 (73%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Demers – Ekman-Larsson12:05
xG 0.48–0.15 (76%)attempts 15–12goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).