Mon, Nov 27, 2017·United Center, Chicago
Anaheim Ducks 3, Chicago Blackhawks 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 07 | 28 | 114 | 329 |
| CHI | 316 | 313 | 16 | 735 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:57CHIPatrick SharpAssists: Ryan Hartman, Alex DeBrincat · Snap, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 16:22CHIAlex DeBrincatAssists: Nick Schmaltz, Brent Seabrook · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–2
- P1 18:11CHIBrandon SaadAssists: Jan Rutta, Richard Panik · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–3
- P2 4:15CHIArtem AnisimovPPGWGAssists: Nick Schmaltz, Patrick Kane · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–4
- P2 6:14ANAJakob SilfverbergAssists: Andrew Cogliano, Chris Wagner · Deflected, 0.09 xG1–4
- P2 7:49CHIAlex DeBrincatAssists: Ryan Hartman, Patrick Sharp · Wrist, 0.28 xG1–5
- P2 9:19ANAChris WagnerAssists: Andrew Cogliano, Jakob Silfverberg · Snap, 0.04 xG2–5
- P2 14:14CHIAlex DeBrincatPPAssists: Patrick Kane, Duncan Keith · Wrist, 0.27 xG2–6
- P3 1:33ANAChris WagnerPPAssists: Hampus Lindholm, Nick Ritchie · Tip-in, 0.14 xG3–6
- P3 5:48CHINick SchmaltzAssists: Patrick Kane, Connor Murphy · Snap, 0.22 xG3–7
Penalties (9)
- P1 3:14ANADerek Grant: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:16ANAJohn Gibson: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 13:42ANAKevin Bieksa: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 13:42CHIRichard Panik: Slashing2 min
- P2 13:53ANACam Fowler: High sticking2 min
- P2 19:34CHIJan Rutta: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 1:57CHIRyan Hartman: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:47CHIPatrick Kane: Slashing2 min
- P3 15:47ANANick Ritchie: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Grant won the faceoff against Toews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- Perry – Grant – Ritchie11:25
xG 0.89–0.95 (48%)attempts 18–10goals 0–3
- Liambas – Rasmussen – Kossila6:21
xG 0.12–0.47 (20%)attempts 4–7goals 0–1
- Vermette – Shaw – Roy9:11
xG 0.07–0.63 (10%)attempts 1–13goals 0–0
- Cogliano – Silfverberg – Wagner11:30
xG 0.23–0.81 (22%)attempts 8–17goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestBieksa – Fowler4:07
xG 0.45–0.20 (69%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Bieksa – Montour4:19
xG 0.00–0.24 (0%)attempts 0–9goals 0–0
- Manson – Lindholm5:34
xG 0.23–0.56 (29%)attempts 6–10goals 0–2
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestAnisimov – Kane – Schmaltz10:37
xG 1.09–0.23 (82%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
- Sharp – Hartman – DeBrincat8:26
xG 0.71–0.32 (69%)attempts 12–8goals 2–0
- Toews – Panik – Saad10:51
xG 0.78–0.70 (53%)attempts 13–7goals 1–1
- Bouma – Wingels – Hayden7:36
xG 0.10–0.09 (52%)attempts 6–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSeabrook – Murphy12:12
xG 1.59–0.26 (86%)attempts 23–5goals 4–1
- Forsling – Rutta16:19
xG 1.19–0.21 (85%)attempts 20–9goals 1–0
- Keith – Franson15:22
xG 0.68–1.00 (40%)attempts 9–20goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).