Tue, Nov 28, 2017·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Toronto Maple Leafs 4, Calgary Flames 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 112 | 111 | 27 | 430 |
| CGY | 09 | 06 | 15 | 120 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:36TORRoman PolakUnassisted · Slap, 0.03 xG1–0
- P2 12:36TORNikita ZaitsevGWGAssists: Zach Hyman, Auston Matthews · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–0
- P3 1:54TORNazem KadriAssists: William Nylander · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–0
- P3 5:29CGYMichael StoneAssists: Sam Bennett, Troy Brouwer · Slap, 0.02 xG3–1
- P3 19:59TORLeo KomarovENUnassisted · Backhand, 0.68 xG4–1
Penalties (5)
- P1 11:07TORRon Hainsey: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:49CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 16:00CGYMikael Backlund: High sticking2 min
- P2 17:08TORMorgan Rielly: Interference2 min
- P2 19:42TORPatrick Marleau: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Matthews won the faceoff against Monahan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestHyman – Brown – Matthews13:57
xG 0.75–0.42 (64%)attempts 13–14goals 1–0
- Moore – Martin – Nylander6:32
xG 0.21–0.20 (52%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Bozak – Marner11:27
xG 0.34–0.38 (47%)attempts 16–14goals 0–1
- Marleau – Komarov – Kadri12:07
xG 0.17–0.22 (43%)attempts 9–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Rielly14:19
xG 0.70–0.39 (65%)attempts 16–12goals 0–0
- Gardiner – Zaitsev14:51
xG 0.42–0.20 (67%)attempts 13–12goals 1–0
- Polak – Gardiner2:24
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 1–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestFrolik – Backlund – Tkachuk10:43
xG 0.45–0.26 (63%)attempts 20–11goals 0–1
- Brouwer – Jankowski – Bennett7:58
xG 0.20–0.29 (41%)attempts 8–12goals 1–0
- Ferland – Gaudreau – Monahan14:01
xG 0.34–0.53 (39%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Stajan – Hamilton – Lazar4:07
xG 0.01–0.30 (3%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamonic – Brodie16:31
xG 0.65–0.57 (53%)attempts 20–22goals 0–1
- Giordano – Stone2:35
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Giordano – Hamilton14:43
xG 0.39–0.58 (40%)attempts 15–13goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).