Tue, Nov 28, 2017·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Dallas Stars 3, Vegas Golden Knights 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 010 | 311 | 09 | 330 |
| VGK | 015 | 08 | 011 | 034 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 12:55DALRadek FaksaGWGAssists: Dan Hamhuis, Greg Pateryn · Snap, 0.20 xG1–0
- P2 19:33DALRadek FaksaAssists: Gemel Smith, Brett Ritchie · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–0
- P2 19:41DALRadek FaksaAssists: Antoine Roussel, Tyler Pitlick · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–0
Penalties (7)
- P1 9:41DALGemel Smith: Roughing2 min
- P1 9:41VGKColin Miller: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:48VGKNate Schmidt: Holding2 min
- P2 11:55VGKReilly Smith: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:23DALTyler Seguin: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:58DALDan Hamhuis: Tripping2 min
- P3 17:55VGKJonathan Marchessault: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Benn won the faceoff against Haula
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestSpezza – Seguin – Janmark5:57
xG 0.37–0.12 (76%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Radulov – Benn – Shore8:52
xG 0.29–0.16 (64%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Roussel – Pitlick – Faksa9:51
xG 0.33–0.24 (58%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Ritchie – Faksa – Smith2:05
xG 0.17–0.11 (60%)attempts 2–3goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohns – Honka10:39
xG 0.45–0.16 (74%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Klingberg – Lindell18:48
xG 0.83–0.67 (55%)attempts 18–21goals 0–0
- Hamhuis – Pateryn16:06
xG 0.33–0.47 (41%)attempts 11–15goals 1–0
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestNeal – Haula – Tuch4:40
xG 0.49–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Lindberg – Matteau – Bellemare7:07
xG 0.11–0.13 (47%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Eakin – Leipsic – Nosek3:29
xG 0.01–0.03 (19%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Smith – Karlsson – Marchessault12:52
xG 0.27–0.38 (41%)attempts 15–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMiller – Hunt12:22
xG 0.48–0.36 (57%)attempts 15–10goals 0–1
- Miller – Theodore2:43
xG 0.05–0.00 (97%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Miller – Schmidt2:37
xG 0.11–0.09 (56%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).