Fri, Dec 1, 2017·Barclays Center, Brooklyn
Ottawa Senators 6, New York Islanders 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 311 | 214 | 110 | 635 |
| NYI | 29 | 316 | 012 | 537 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:32OTTRyan DzingelAssists: Nate Thompson · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–0
- P1 9:41OTTZack SmithAssists: Matt Duchene · Slap, 0.09 xG2–0
- P1 12:13NYIAnthony BeauvillierAssists: Jason Chimera, Cal Clutterbuck · Wrist, 0.26 xG2–1
- P1 14:27NYIAnders LeePPAssists: Josh Bailey, Nick Leddy · Backhand, 0.20 xG2–2
- P1 18:55OTTBobby RyanAssists: Dion Phaneuf · Deflected, 0.27 xG3–2
- P2 3:01NYIAnders LeeAssists: John Tavares, Josh Bailey · Wrist, 0.20 xG3–3
- P2 4:17NYIAndrew LaddAssists: Jordan Eberle · Snap, 0.14 xG3–4
- P2 8:26OTTThomas ChabotAssists: Bobby Ryan, Mark Stone · Slap, 0.05 xG4–4
- P2 8:40NYIJason ChimeraUnassisted · Wrist, 0.19 xG4–5
- P2 11:49OTTMike HoffmanPPAssists: Thomas Chabot, Cody Ceci · Snap, 0.09 xG5–5
- P3 1:38OTTRyan DzingelPPGWGAssists: Thomas Chabot, Dion Phaneuf · Backhand, 0.17 xG6–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 2:58OTTRyan Dzingel: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 13:42OTTMike Hoffman: Illegal check to head2 min · PPG
- P1 15:17OTTDerick Brassard: Holding2 min
- P2 9:50NYIJohn Tavares: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 19:50NYIJohnny Boychuk: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 13:25NYINick Leddy: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Brassard won the faceoff against Barzal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Hoffman – Duchene14:05
xG 0.82–0.33 (72%)attempts 16–10goals 1–0
- Pyatt – Dzingel – Pageau3:53
xG 0.06–0.02 (76%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Ryan – Brassard – Stone11:36
xG 0.55–0.56 (49%)attempts 12–7goals 2–1
- Burrows – Pyatt – Pageau2:18
xG 0.24–0.27 (47%)attempts 5–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPhaneuf – Ceci7:23
xG 0.57–0.10 (85%)attempts 8–4goals 3–0
- Karlsson – Claesson8:07
xG 0.72–0.43 (63%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
- Oduya – Ceci7:15
xG 0.43–0.21 (67%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestChimera – Clutterbuck – Beauvillier7:52
xG 0.63–0.16 (80%)attempts 4–7goals 2–0
- Bailey – Tavares – Lee12:07
xG 0.81–0.39 (68%)attempts 11–10goals 1–1
- Ladd – Eberle – Barzal9:56
xG 0.23–0.43 (35%)attempts 3–11goals 1–0
- Nelson – Quine – Ho-Sang7:14
xG 0.04–0.81 (5%)attempts 3–11goals 0–3
Defence pairs
- bestde Haan – Pelech13:19
xG 1.32–1.01 (57%)attempts 15–18goals 2–2
- Seidenberg – Pulock11:45
xG 0.53–0.26 (67%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Boychuk – Leddy16:16
xG 0.76–0.54 (59%)attempts 14–13goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).