Sat, Dec 2, 2017·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Buffalo Sabres 1, Pittsburgh Penguins 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 05 | 013 | 115 | 133 |
| PIT | 110 | 210 | 29 | 529 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:44PITEvgeni MalkinAssists: Jake Guentzel, Olli Maatta · Snap, 0.11 xG0–1
- P2 5:36PITCarl HagelinGWGAssists: Bryan Rust, Riley Sheahan · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–2
- P2 19:00PITPatric HornqvistPPAssists: Sidney Crosby, Kris Letang · Wrist, 0.27 xG0–3
- P3 11:18BUFJason PominvilleAssists: Jack Eichel, Evander Kane · Snap, 0.06 xG1–3
- P3 13:14PITPhil KesselAssists: Evgeni Malkin · Snap, 0.09 xG1–4
- P3 18:58PITSidney CrosbyENAssists: Patric Hornqvist, Kris Letang · Wrist, 0.72 xG1–5
Penalties (14)
- P1 4:09BUFSam Reinhart: High sticking2 min
- P1 7:45BUFHudson Fasching: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 10:06BUFZach Bogosian: Fighting5 min
- P1 10:06PITRyan Reaves: Fighting5 min
- P1 12:24BUFJohan Larsson: Cross checking2 min
- P1 15:27PITRyan Reaves: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:09PITConor Sheary: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 15:15PITBrian Dumoulin: Interference2 min
- P2 17:37PITEvgeni Malkin: High sticking2 min
- P2 17:37BUFBenoit Pouliot: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 18:11BUFKyle Criscuolo: Holding2 min
- P2 19:17BUFMarco Scandella: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 2:42PITOlli Maatta: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:09BUFJordan Nolan: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eichel won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestOkposo – Nolan – Criscuolo5:26
xG 0.41–0.10 (81%)attempts 9–2goals 0–1
- Larsson – Girgensons – Fasching5:05
xG 0.11–0.18 (38%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Pouliot – O'Reilly – Reinhart9:15
xG 0.11–0.21 (34%)attempts 6–9goals 0–1
- Pominville – Kane – Eichel10:10
xG 0.28–0.50 (36%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Bogosian – McCabe7:48
xG 0.16–0.18 (47%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Scandella – Ristolainen12:10
xG 0.48–0.60 (45%)attempts 17–10goals 0–0
- Gorges – Beaulieu6:04
xG 0.07–0.22 (23%)attempts 3–6goals 0–1
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Kessel – Guentzel10:01
xG 0.63–0.20 (76%)attempts 11–7goals 2–1
- Crosby – Hornqvist – Sheary8:43
xG 0.35–0.09 (79%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Hagelin – Sheahan – Rust6:31
xG 0.22–0.22 (50%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Reaves – Kuhnhackl – Rowney4:53
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHunwick – Maatta7:42
xG 0.35–0.23 (60%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Letang – Cole2:06
xG 0.12–0.04 (76%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Cole – Schultz8:45
xG 0.33–0.29 (53%)attempts 4–7goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).