Tue, Dec 5, 2017·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Winnipeg Jets 1, Detroit Red Wings 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 03 | 19 | 014 | 126 |
| DET | 216 | 09 | 37 | 532 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:42DETJustin AbdelkaderAssists: Gustav Nyquist, Henrik Zetterberg · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 14:43DETGustav NyquistGWGAssists: Tomas Tatar, Niklas Kronwall · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–2
- P2 6:25WPGPatrik LainePPAssists: Blake Wheeler, Dustin Byfuglien · Snap, 0.07 xG1–2
- P3 4:55DETGustav NyquistAssists: Jonathan Ericsson, Nick Jensen · Snap, 0.20 xG1–3
- P3 7:25DETDarren HelmUnassisted · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–4
- P3 10:40DETDavid BoothAssists: Andreas Athanasiou, Martin Frk · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–5
Penalties (12)
- P1 6:51DETTrevor Daley: Slashing2 min
- P1 12:31WPGJosh Morrissey: Holding2 min
- P1 12:36WPGTyler Myers: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 3:56WPGTyler Myers: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:35DETDylan Larkin: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 6:03DETJustin Abdelkader: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:39DETJimmy Howard: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:50WPGJosh Morrissey: Interference2 min
- P2 14:46WPGTyler Myers: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 1:15DETDarren Helm: Interference2 min
- P3 11:53DETJonathan Ericsson: Cross checking2 min
- P3 15:31WPGJoel Armia: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Scheifele won the faceoff against Nielsen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestLowry – Copp – Tanev11:09
xG 0.65–0.16 (80%)attempts 19–5goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Scheifele – Connor9:25
xG 0.08–0.26 (24%)attempts 3–8goals 0–1
- Little – Ehlers – Laine8:00
xG 0.02–0.27 (6%)attempts 4–10goals 0–1
- Hendricks – Perreault – Armia4:35
xG 0.18–0.44 (29%)attempts 3–6goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestMyers – Kulikov10:51
xG 0.74–0.13 (85%)attempts 14–5goals 0–0
- Myers – Trouba2:24
xG 0.02–0.30 (7%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
- Trouba – Morrissey11:20
xG 0.24–0.53 (31%)attempts 14–10goals 0–2
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestTatar – Mantha – Larkin7:44
xG 0.31–0.06 (84%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Helm – Glendening6:41
xG 0.06–0.02 (74%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Booth – Frk – Athanasiou4:28
xG 0.10–0.17 (38%)attempts 2–7goals 1–0
- Zetterberg – Abdelkader – Nyquist8:51
xG 0.31–0.45 (40%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestKronwall – Jensen9:11
xG 0.40–0.11 (78%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Daley – Ericsson10:36
xG 0.16–0.20 (45%)attempts 6–9goals 1–0
- Green – DeKeyser10:38
xG 0.33–0.39 (46%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).