Tue, Dec 5, 2017·Amalie Arena, Tampa
New York Islanders 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 02 | 217 | 012 | 231 |
| TBL | 211 | 313 | 110 | 634 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:34TBLBrayden PointAssists: Ondrej Palat, Nikita Kucherov · Snap, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 17:47TBLAndrej SustrAssists: Chris Kunitz, Ryan Callahan · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–2
- P2 7:07NYIMathew BarzalPPAssists: John Tavares, Nick Leddy · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–2
- P2 8:58NYIJordan EberleAssists: Mathew Barzal, Adam Pelech · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–2
- P2 16:22TBLYanni GourdePPGWGAssists: Mikhail Sergachev, Tyler Johnson · Snap, 0.31 xG2–3
- P2 17:56TBLYanni GourdeAssists: Slater Koekkoek, Cory Conacher · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–4
- P2 18:46TBLVladislav NamestnikovPPAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Steven Stamkos · Wrist, 0.43 xG2–5
- P3 6:00TBLChris KunitzUnassisted · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–6
Penalties (6)
- P1 15:08NYIAnders Lee: Slashing2 min
- P2 5:34TBLBrayden Point: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 14:51NYIJason Chimera: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 18:42NYIAnders Lee: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 11:21TBLCory Conacher: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 13:30NYIBrock Nelson: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Point
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- Ladd – Eberle – Barzal7:13
xG 0.31–0.29 (52%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Nelson – Ho-Sang – Beauvillier10:18
xG 0.20–0.31 (40%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
- Bailey – Tavares – Lee10:53
xG 0.27–0.47 (37%)attempts 8–13goals 0–1
- Chimera – Clutterbuck – Quine10:12
xG 0.33–0.52 (39%)attempts 8–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- de Haan – Pulock15:06
xG 0.32–0.67 (33%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Mayfield – Pelech16:18
xG 0.72–1.11 (39%)attempts 19–22goals 0–1
- Boychuk – Leddy14:59
xG 0.19–0.90 (18%)attempts 5–21goals 1–2
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – Conacher – Gourde8:38
xG 0.42–0.04 (90%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
- Stamkos – Johnson – Namestnikov9:47
xG 0.54–0.29 (65%)attempts 9–6goals 0–1
- Kunitz – Callahan – Paquette10:46
xG 0.57–0.35 (62%)attempts 19–8goals 1–0
- Palat – Kucherov – Point11:31
xG 0.42–0.34 (55%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGirardi – Koekkoek12:27
xG 0.76–0.38 (67%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0
- Hedman – Sustr16:20
xG 0.92–0.56 (62%)attempts 21–12goals 0–0
- Girardi – Hedman2:15
xG 0.15–0.02 (86%)attempts 2–1goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).