Tue, Dec 5, 2017·Pepsi Center, Denver
Buffalo Sabres 4, Colorado Avalanche 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 09 | 212 | 214 | 435 |
| COL | 010 | 116 | 111 | 237 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 5:32BUFBenoit PouliotSHAssists: Ryan O'Reilly · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–0
- P2 12:22COLNathan MacKinnonPPAssists: Alexander Kerfoot, Mikko Rantanen · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 18:59BUFJake McCabeAssists: Benoit Pouliot, Johan Larsson · Slap, 0.04 xG2–1
- P3 9:58COLNathan MacKinnonPPAssists: Tyson Barrie, Alexander Kerfoot · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–2
- P3 11:54BUFEvander KaneGWGAssists: Jack Eichel, Jake McCabe · Wrap-around, 0.15 xG3–2
- P3 19:27BUFJack EichelENAssists: Ryan O'Reilly · Wrist, 0.72 xG4–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 1:06BUFJack Eichel: Holding2 min
- P1 11:18COLNikita Zadorov: Interference2 min
- P1 17:29BUFRasmus Ristolainen: Roughing2 min
- P2 5:10BUFZach Bogosian: High sticking2 min
- P2 10:37BUFSam Reinhart: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 15:51COLMikko Rantanen: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:59COLSven Andrighetto: Delaying game bench2 min
- P3 8:23BUFKyle Okposo: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 10:43BUFZach Bogosian: Slashing2 min
- P3 10:43COLBlake Comeau: Embellishment2 min
- P3 12:14BUFMarco Scandella: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestPominville – Kane – Eichel9:03
xG 0.76–0.09 (89%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Okposo – Wilson – Rodrigues5:25
xG 0.33–0.07 (83%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Pouliot – O'Reilly – Fasching5:23
xG 0.30–0.19 (61%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Nolan – Larsson – Reinhart5:52
xG 0.07–0.26 (21%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBogosian – McCabe11:07
xG 0.90–0.14 (86%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Scandella – Ristolainen13:31
xG 0.88–0.26 (77%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Falk – Antipin8:40
xG 0.20–0.54 (27%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestCompher – MacKinnon – Rantanen7:47
xG 0.21–0.07 (74%)attempts 11–2goals 0–0
- Wilson – Grimaldi – Andrighetto2:52
xG 0.07–0.03 (72%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Yakupov – Kerfoot – Jost3:46
xG 0.08–0.24 (24%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
- Comeau – Soderberg – Nieto5:15
xG 0.10–0.28 (27%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Lindholm2:07
xG 0.23–0.03 (89%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Johnson – Girard7:33
xG 0.26–0.12 (68%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Siemens – Lindholm4:55
xG 0.09–0.25 (28%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).