Tue, Dec 5, 2017·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Anaheim Ducks 3, Vegas Golden Knights 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 07 | 38 | 010 | 04 | 0 | 329 |
| VGK | 219 | 05 | 112 | 07 | 1 | 443 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:34VGKJames NealAssists: Erik Haula, Luca Sbisa · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–1
- P1 18:50VGKOscar LindbergAssists: Deryk Engelland, Erik Haula · Wrist, 0.22 xG0–2
- P2 1:03ANAFrancois BeaucheminAssists: Brandon Montour, Ondrej Kase · Slap, 0.02 xG1–2
- P2 5:02ANAAntoine VermettePPAssists: Kevin Bieksa, Francois Beauchemin · Deflected, 0.08 xG2–2
- P2 16:14ANACorey PerryAssists: Adam Henrique · Slap, 0.16 xG3–2
- P3 15:38VGKErik HaulaAssists: James Neal, Alex Tuch · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. VGK Jonathan Marchessault stopped
- 2. ANA Corey Perry stopped
- 3. VGK James Neal stopped
- 4. ANA Rickard Rakell stopped
- 5. VGK Alex Tuch scored
- 6. ANA Ondrej Kase stopped
Penalties (6)
- P1 11:25ANABrandon Montour: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 2:13VGKOscar Lindberg: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P3 3:28ANAKevin Bieksa: Slashing2 min
- OT 1:40VGKAlex Tuch: Tripping2 min
- OT 4:30ANAKevin Roy: Tripping2 min
- OT 5:00ANAChris Wagner: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Marchessault won the faceoff against Henrique
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- Cogliano – Wagner – Roy10:15
xG 0.44–0.47 (48%)attempts 8–11goals 0–1
- Grant – Shaw – Rasmussen7:11
xG 0.05–0.16 (22%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Vermette – Ritchie – Kase12:42
xG 0.45–0.65 (41%)attempts 11–16goals 1–0
- Perry – Henrique – Rakell12:29
xG 0.18–0.43 (30%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBieksa – Fowler9:15
xG 0.32–0.04 (90%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Manson – Megna6:50
xG 0.34–0.11 (76%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Beauchemin – Montour15:06
xG 0.40–0.44 (48%)attempts 12–17goals 2–0
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestNeal – Haula – Lindberg10:51
xG 0.49–0.26 (65%)attempts 10–7goals 1–1
- Eakin – Leipsic – Tuch7:57
xG 0.33–0.13 (71%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Neal – Haula – Leipsic2:08
xG 0.00–0.03 (3%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Smith – Karlsson – Marchessault13:27
xG 0.37–0.43 (47%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcNabb – Miller16:06
xG 0.46–0.13 (77%)attempts 11–12goals 1–0
- Sbisa – Schmidt14:11
xG 0.53–0.30 (63%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
- Engelland – McNabb2:41
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).