Thu, Dec 7, 2017·TD Garden, Boston
Arizona Coyotes 1, Boston Bruins 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 17 | 06 | 08 | 121 |
| BOS | 18 | 210 | 314 | 632 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:15BOSBrad MarchandAssists: David Pastrnak, Patrice Bergeron · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 17:07ARIChristian DvorakUnassisted · Backhand, 0.16 xG1–1
- P2 13:54BOSDavid BackesGWGAssists: Riley Nash, Matt Grzelcyk · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–2
- P2 19:06BOSDavid BackesUnassisted · Snap, 0.12 xG1–3
- P3 0:45BOSDavid KrejciPPAssists: Brad Marchand, Patrice Bergeron · Snap, 0.16 xG1–4
- P3 17:56BOSDanton HeinenAssists: Riley Nash, Kevan Miller · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–5
- P3 18:51BOSAnders BjorkAssists: David Krejci, Zdeno Chara · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–6
Penalties (4)
- P2 16:08ARIZac Rinaldo: Interference2 min
- P2 19:56ARIOliver Ekman-Larsson: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 0:30ARILuke Schenn: Hooking2 min
- P3 10:16ARILuke Schenn: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Stepan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestDomi – Dvorak – Fischer11:35
xG 0.76–0.51 (60%)attempts 11–9goals 1–1
- Richardson – Rinaldo – Martinook10:29
xG 0.37–0.27 (58%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Duclair – Perlini – Strome2:04
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Stepan – Duclair – Perlini8:03
xG 0.23–0.40 (37%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – Ekman-Larsson2:14
xG 0.18–0.09 (66%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Goligoski – Chychrun14:59
xG 0.76–0.81 (48%)attempts 15–14goals 0–2
- Goligoski – Capobianco4:22
xG 0.20–0.33 (38%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBackes – Nash – Heinen14:05
xG 2.15–0.35 (86%)attempts 24–7goals 3–0
- Krejci – Bjork – DeBrusk8:26
xG 0.19–0.05 (80%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
- Krejci – Schaller – Acciari2:06
xG 0.13–0.10 (55%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak11:19
xG 0.44–0.43 (51%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMiller – Grzelcyk13:06
xG 1.19–0.22 (85%)attempts 17–7goals 2–0
- Chara – McAvoy17:54
xG 0.85–0.61 (58%)attempts 11–14goals 3–0
- Krug – Carlo17:09
xG 0.86–0.90 (49%)attempts 11–16goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).