Fri, Dec 8, 2017·United Center, Chicago
Buffalo Sabres 2, Chicago Blackhawks 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 15 | 110 | 07 | 06 | 228 |
| CHI | 013 | 114 | 116 | 18 | 351 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:42BUFJason PominvillePPAssists: Jack Eichel, Evander Kane · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–0
- P2 8:30CHIAlex DeBrincatPPAssists: Patrick Sharp, Gustav Forsling · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 11:00BUFKyle OkposoAssists: Scott Wilson, Evan Rodrigues · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–1
- P3 16:38CHITommy WingelsSHAssists: Gustav Forsling, Jan Rutta · Tip-in, 0.06 xG2–2
- OT 4:55CHIGustav ForslingGWGAssists: Brandon Saad, Jonathan Toews · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 1:11CHIJan Rutta: Tripping2 min
- P1 3:05BUFEvan Rodrigues: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:54BUFEvan Rodrigues: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:27CHITommy Wingels: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 6:43BUFVictor Antipin: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 6:00BUFJohan Larsson: Cross checking2 min
- P3 15:25CHIBrent Seabrook: Interference2 min
- OT 1:31CHIGustav Forsling: Penalty shot holding on breakaway0 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Eichel
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- Pominville – Kane – Eichel11:34
xG 0.42–0.45 (49%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
- Pouliot – O'Reilly – Fasching8:18
xG 0.20–0.24 (45%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Okposo – Wilson – Rodrigues8:32
xG 0.05–0.21 (19%)attempts 1–11goals 1–0
- Nolan – Larsson – Reinhart8:20
xG 0.10–0.30 (25%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- McCabe – Antipin2:28
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
- Falk – Antipin5:08
xG 0.07–0.16 (30%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
- Bogosian – McCabe13:10
xG 0.16–0.51 (24%)attempts 5–19goals 0–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestSharp – Panik – Hinostroza9:55
xG 0.75–0.35 (68%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
- Toews – Saad – DeBrincat11:04
xG 0.40–0.26 (61%)attempts 13–4goals 0–0
- Bouma – Wingels – Hayden4:55
xG 0.09–0.04 (71%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Anisimov – Kane – Schmaltz12:35
xG 0.30–0.25 (55%)attempts 12–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestForsling – Rutta10:31
xG 0.78–0.05 (94%)attempts 14–1goals 0–1
- Keith – Rutta2:31
xG 0.58–0.02 (97%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- Murphy – Rutta3:41
xG 0.21–0.03 (87%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).