Sun, Dec 10, 2017·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Buffalo Sabres 2, St. Louis Blues 3 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 87% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 07 | 07 | 29 | 01 | 224 |
| STL | 116 | 19 | 016 | 14 | 345 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:40STLBrayden SchennAssists: Joel Edmundson, Alexander Steen · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
- P2 16:17STLPaul StastnyAssists: Vladimir Tarasenko, Joel Edmundson · Wrist, 0.26 xG0–2
- P3 1:42BUFEvan RodriguesPPAssists: Sam Reinhart, Evander Kane · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–2
- P3 18:33BUFEvan RodriguesAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Marco Scandella · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–2
- OT 4:24STLVladimir TarasenkoGWGAssists: Colton Parayko, Paul Stastny · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 14:05STLRobert Bortuzzo: Interference2 min
- P1 17:06BUFJustin Falk: Interference2 min
- P2 3:29STLOskar Sundqvist: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:43BUFJustin Falk: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:43STLBrayden Schenn: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:43STLBrayden Schenn: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:12BUFJake McCabe: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:14BUFJustin Falk: Hooking2 min
- P3 0:54STLVladimir Sobotka: Hooking2 min · PPG
- OT 4:24BUFJack Eichel: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eichel won the faceoff against Schenn
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestKane – Reinhart – Rodrigues2:54
xG 0.19–0.02 (91%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Larsson – Girgensons – Fasching2:11
xG 0.05–0.03 (64%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Larsson – Wilson – Fasching2:16
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Pominville – Pouliot – Eichel3:03
xG 0.11–0.23 (32%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Bogosian – Scandella2:12
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Scandella – Ristolainen17:22
xG 0.36–0.71 (34%)attempts 13–17goals 0–1
- Bogosian – McCabe14:44
xG 0.47–0.96 (33%)attempts 10–16goals 0–1
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestStastny – Sobotka – Tarasenko11:21
xG 1.31–0.19 (87%)attempts 19–6goals 1–0
- Steen – Schenn – Jaskin11:08
xG 0.42–0.25 (62%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Upshall – Brodziak – Sundqvist5:10
xG 0.21–0.11 (66%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Berglund – Paajarvi – Barbashev7:43
xG 0.11–0.09 (55%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEdmundson – Parayko16:24
xG 1.36–0.29 (82%)attempts 21–10goals 2–0
- Bouwmeester – Bortuzzo13:59
xG 0.66–0.23 (74%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Gunnarsson – Dunn11:15
xG 0.30–0.21 (59%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 87% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).