Mon, Dec 11, 2017·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Florida Panthers 2, Detroit Red Wings 1 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 012 | 06 | 18 | 13 | 229 |
| DET | 111 | 012 | 011 | 01 | 135 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:27DETHenrik ZetterbergAssists: Trevor Daley · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P3 10:09FLAVincent TrocheckPPAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Aleksander Barkov · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–1
- OT 2:02FLAMike MathesonGWGAssists: Nick Bjugstad · Wrist, 0.33 xG2–1
Penalties (13)
- P1 4:53DETNiklas Kronwall: Slashing2 min
- P1 7:03FLAMark Pysyk: Holding2 min
- P1 13:26FLAMicheal Haley: Fighting5 min
- P1 13:26DETLuke Witkowski: Fighting5 min
- P2 6:39FLAMicheal Haley: Fighting5 min
- P2 6:39DETLuke Witkowski: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:00DETDarren Helm: Interference2 min
- P2 10:00FLAAlexander Petrovic: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:33FLAAaron Ekblad: Slashing2 min
- P2 10:33FLAAaron Ekblad: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:33DETLuke Glendening: Fighting5 min
- P3 5:10FLAMacKenzie Weegar: Slashing2 min
- P3 8:22DETNick Jensen: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Nielsen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestBjugstad – Huberdeau – Barkov8:09
xG 0.42–0.08 (84%)attempts 10–1goals 0–0
- MacKenzie – Sceviour – Haley3:59
xG 0.37–0.10 (78%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Huberdeau – Barkov – Malgin3:52
xG 0.08–0.03 (74%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- McGinn – Bjugstad – Trocheck3:51
xG 0.02–0.15 (13%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPysyk – Matheson15:07
xG 0.60–0.35 (63%)attempts 16–12goals 0–1
- Petrovic – Matheson2:27
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Petrovic – Weegar11:20
xG 0.38–0.51 (43%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestTatar – Mantha – Larkin9:54
xG 1.10–0.15 (88%)attempts 23–6goals 0–0
- Zetterberg – Abdelkader – Nyquist8:20
xG 0.37–0.12 (76%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
- Nielsen – Helm – Glendening13:08
xG 0.26–0.40 (39%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGreen – DeKeyser15:13
xG 0.94–0.22 (81%)attempts 22–10goals 0–0
- Daley – Ericsson17:35
xG 0.51–0.48 (51%)attempts 13–16goals 1–0
- Witkowski – DeKeyser2:41
xG 0.06–0.13 (32%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).