Wed, Dec 13, 2017·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Boston Bruins 3, Detroit Red Wings 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 02 | 014 | 215 | 11 | 332 |
| DET | 09 | 114 | 110 | 00 | 233 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 9:15DETTomas TatarPPAssists: Niklas Kronwall, Henrik Zetterberg · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P3 3:02BOSNoel AcciariAssists: Tim Schaller · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–1
- P3 11:34DETDylan LarkinSHAssists: Darren Helm, Trevor Daley · Backhand, 0.20 xG1–2
- P3 18:34BOSDavid PastrnakAssists: Brad Marchand, Torey Krug · Snap, 0.20 xG2–2
- OT 0:35BOSBrad MarchandGWGAssists: Torey Krug · Backhand, 0.11 xG3–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 1:39DETAnthony Mantha: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 17:59BOSMatt Grzelcyk: Holding2 min
- P2 4:04DETDarren Helm: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:02BOSPatrice Bergeron: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 12:58BOSTorey Krug: Holding2 min
- P3 10:13DETMike Green: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nielsen won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestKrejci – Bjork – DeBrusk11:21
xG 0.37–0.14 (72%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Kuraly – Schaller – Acciari7:28
xG 0.42–0.26 (62%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Backes – Nash – Heinen8:34
xG 0.32–0.32 (50%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak13:53
xG 0.24–0.33 (42%)attempts 14–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGrzelcyk – McAvoy4:51
xG 0.44–0.05 (90%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Postma – Grzelcyk5:43
xG 0.36–0.11 (77%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
- Krug – Carlo12:25
xG 0.41–0.19 (69%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestTatar – Mantha – Larkin9:16
xG 0.38–0.11 (77%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Helm – Glendening12:49
xG 0.16–0.21 (42%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
- Zetterberg – Abdelkader – Nyquist8:21
xG 0.16–0.24 (40%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKronwall – Witkowski3:22
xG 0.16–0.05 (77%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Kronwall – Jensen5:08
xG 0.19–0.09 (66%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Jensen – DeKeyser2:04
xG 0.09–0.03 (72%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).