Thu, Dec 14, 2017·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Pittsburgh Penguins 1, Vegas Golden Knights 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 16 | 09 | 010 | 125 |
| VGK | 110 | 09 | 17 | 226 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:41VGKJames NealAssists: Colin Miller, David Perron · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 12:04PITIan ColeAssists: Carl Hagelin, Riley Sheahan · Snap, 0.06 xG1–1
- P3 8:17VGKJon MerrillGWGAssists: Erik Haula · Slap, 0.05 xG1–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 2:08VGKJon Merrill: Interference2 min
- P1 14:43VGKTomas Nosek: Holding2 min
- P2 5:18PITIan Cole: Interference2 min
- P2 15:05VGKJon Merrill: Delaying game smothering puck2 min
- P3 17:58PITChad Ruhwedel: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Marchessault won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – Guentzel – Simon14:26
xG 0.68–0.15 (82%)attempts 18–12goals 0–0
- Hagelin – Sheahan – Sheary9:20
xG 0.35–0.17 (68%)attempts 8–5goals 1–1
- Reaves – Rust – Rowney4:48
xG 0.08–0.06 (58%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Malkin – Hornqvist – Kessel14:07
xG 0.08–0.75 (10%)attempts 10–17goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Dumoulin15:26
xG 0.59–0.45 (56%)attempts 14–16goals 0–1
- Hunwick – Cole12:51
xG 0.21–0.17 (55%)attempts 14–7goals 1–0
- Maatta – Ruhwedel14:16
xG 0.26–0.69 (27%)attempts 8–17goals 0–1
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestNeal – Perron – Haula11:49
xG 0.67–0.14 (83%)attempts 17–9goals 2–0
- Lindberg – Bellemare – Nosek6:32
xG 0.23–0.15 (61%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Eakin – Leipsic – Tuch8:39
xG 0.20–0.39 (34%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Smith – Karlsson – Marchessault14:03
xG 0.14–0.33 (30%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcNabb – Schmidt14:44
xG 0.64–0.35 (65%)attempts 19–11goals 0–0
- Engelland – McNabb2:34
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Merrill – Miller12:49
xG 0.30–0.32 (48%)attempts 9–9goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).