Tue, Dec 19, 2017·Barclays Center, Brooklyn
Detroit Red Wings 6, New York Islanders 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 26 | 14 | 312 | 622 |
| NYI | 19 | 223 | 05 | 337 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:32NYIAnders LeeAssists: John Tavares, Josh Bailey · Slap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 9:33DETMartin FrkAssists: Jonathan Ericsson, Dylan Larkin · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–1
- P1 16:49DETGustav NyquistPPAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Tomas Tatar · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–1
- P2 2:03NYIRyan PulockPPAssists: Jordan Eberle · Snap, 0.09 xG2–2
- P2 12:59NYIJosh BaileyPPAssists: Mathew Barzal, John Tavares · Snap, 0.15 xG2–3
- P2 15:15DETAnthony ManthaAssists: Henrik Zetterberg · Deflected, 0.06 xG3–3
- P3 10:03DETTrevor DaleyGWGAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Dylan Larkin · Snap, 0.06 xG4–3
- P3 14:12DETMike GreenAssists: Dylan Larkin, Andreas Athanasiou · Wrist, 0.07 xG5–3
- P3 19:31DETLuke GlendeningENAssists: Danny DeKeyser, Frans Nielsen · Wrist, 0.72 xG6–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 15:52NYIAdam Pelech: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 19:17DETJustin Abdelkader: Slashing2 min
- P2 1:30DETDylan Larkin: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 11:59DETDylan Larkin: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nielsen won the faceoff against Cizikas
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestTatar – Athanasiou – Larkin4:08
xG 0.38–0.05 (89%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Nielsen – Helm – Glendening6:10
xG 0.30–0.01 (96%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Zetterberg – Nyquist – Mantha7:52
xG 0.40–0.20 (67%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- Nielsen – Abdelkader – Helm2:42
xG 0.00–0.21 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGreen – DeKeyser18:17
xG 1.05–0.38 (74%)attempts 22–10goals 1–1
- Daley – Ericsson17:55
xG 0.54–0.18 (75%)attempts 14–9goals 2–0
- Kronwall – Jensen7:45
xG 0.18–0.07 (73%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestBailey – Tavares – Lee13:57
xG 0.57–0.48 (55%)attempts 14–10goals 1–0
- Ladd – Eberle – Barzal13:16
xG 0.39–0.42 (48%)attempts 11–18goals 0–2
- Clutterbuck – Cizikas – Nelson9:45
xG 0.23–0.34 (41%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
- Chimera – Bernier – Beauvillier7:29
xG 0.12–0.55 (17%)attempts 4–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPelech – Pulock14:39
xG 0.45–0.27 (63%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Seidenberg – Mayfield16:18
xG 0.13–0.39 (24%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
- Boychuk – Leddy17:34
xG 0.57–0.99 (36%)attempts 18–25goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).