Tue, Dec 19, 2017·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Tampa Bay Lightning 3, Vegas Golden Knights 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 212 | 010 | 116 | 338 |
| VGK | 010 | 218 | 28 | 436 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:43TBLSteven StamkosPPAssists: Victor Hedman, Nikita Kucherov · Slap, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 19:13TBLVladislav NamestnikovPPAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Victor Hedman · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–0
- P2 10:07VGKJames NealPPAssists: David Perron, Shea Theodore · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–1
- P2 18:21VGKJonathan MarchessaultPPAssists: David Perron, Shea Theodore · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–2
- P3 4:42VGKErik HaulaPPAssists: Shea Theodore, David Perron · Deflected, 0.19 xG2–3
- P3 16:08TBLVictor HedmanAssists: Steven Stamkos · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–3
- P3 19:57VGKShea TheodorePPGWGAssists: Jonathan Marchessault, Erik Haula · Slap, 0.10 xG3–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 6:35VGKBrayden McNabb: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P1 15:58TBLSlater Koekkoek: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:13VGKJames Neal: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 9:20TBLBraydon Coburn: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 17:36TBLChris Kunitz: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 4:33TBLMikhail Sergachev: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 7:26VGKOscar Lindberg: Slashing2 min
- P3 16:52VGKDeryk Engelland: Throwing equipment2 min
- P3 19:36TBLBraydon Coburn: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Marchessault won the faceoff against Point
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- Stamkos – Kucherov – Namestnikov13:58
xG 0.54–0.57 (49%)attempts 24–12goals 1–0
- Palat – Gourde – Point10:00
xG 0.17–0.34 (34%)attempts 7–14goals 0–0
- Kunitz – Brown – Paquette7:40
xG 0.15–0.37 (29%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- Killorn – Conacher – Point3:43
xG 0.00–0.22 (0%)attempts 1–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCoburn – Stralman5:14
xG 0.25–0.06 (82%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Hedman – Koekkoek3:52
xG 0.15–0.07 (70%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Girardi – Sergachev2:13
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestEakin – Leipsic – Tuch10:25
xG 0.82–0.14 (85%)attempts 14–7goals 0–1
- Smith – Karlsson – Marchessault10:03
xG 0.66–0.13 (83%)attempts 18–8goals 0–0
- Neal – Perron – Haula14:38
xG 0.46–0.47 (49%)attempts 16–22goals 0–0
- Lindberg – Bellemare – Nosek8:03
xG 0.16–0.20 (44%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMerrill – Miller12:54
xG 0.95–0.10 (90%)attempts 20–6goals 0–1
- McNabb – Schmidt15:21
xG 0.76–0.53 (59%)attempts 15–25goals 0–0
- Engelland – Theodore14:18
xG 0.32–0.43 (43%)attempts 15–18goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).