Wed, Dec 20, 2017·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Toronto Maple Leafs 2, Columbus Blue Jackets 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 012 | 113 | 116 | 241 |
| CBJ | 211 | 119 | 17 | 437 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:57CBJLukas SedlakAssists: Matt Calvert · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 18:45CBJSeth JonesUnassisted · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–2
- P2 4:26TORJake GardinerAssists: William Nylander · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–2
- P2 10:20CBJPierre-Luc DuboisPPGWGAssists: Cam Atkinson, Seth Jones · Wrist, 0.38 xG1–3
- P3 11:51CBJAlexander WennbergAssists: Cam Atkinson, Boone Jenner · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–4
- P3 17:03TORMitch MarnerAssists: Jake Gardiner, Tyler Bozak · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 16:42CBJGabriel Carlsson: Holding2 min
- P2 4:42TORNazem Kadri: High sticking2 min
- P2 9:08TORJames van Riemsdyk: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 12:27TORMatt Martin: Cross checking2 min
- P3 12:27CBJLukas Sedlak: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kadri won the faceoff against Dubois
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Bozak – Marner13:19
xG 1.05–0.25 (81%)attempts 28–7goals 1–0
- Marleau – Komarov – Kadri2:57
xG 0.19–0.11 (64%)attempts 5–2goals 0–1
- Hyman – Brown – Nylander2:13
xG 0.03–0.02 (66%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Komarov – Kadri – Brown4:36
xG 0.11–0.12 (49%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGardiner – Rielly3:28
xG 0.26–0.02 (91%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Gardiner – Carrick9:05
xG 0.37–0.19 (66%)attempts 12–5goals 0–1
- Polak – Gardiner4:07
xG 0.16–0.11 (59%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestAtkinson – Jenner – Wennberg11:53
xG 0.93–0.51 (65%)attempts 12–13goals 1–1
- Anderson – Panarin – Dubois10:59
xG 0.53–0.22 (71%)attempts 17–11goals 0–1
- Calvert – Sedlak – Hannikainen7:54
xG 0.26–0.36 (42%)attempts 3–11goals 1–0
- Foligno – Bjorkstrand – Milano8:26
xG 0.10–0.49 (17%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHarrington – Carlsson10:11
xG 0.70–0.27 (72%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
- Johnson – Savard18:40
xG 0.70–0.81 (46%)attempts 13–28goals 2–1
- Jones – Nutivaara17:33
xG 0.50–0.87 (36%)attempts 18–20goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).